El Niño has been hitting the snooze button on Atlantic hurricane season for weeks, largely preventing the basin from waking up and churning up storms, but now it’s been shaken out of its slumber.
Tropical Storm Cristobal formed in the northern Atlantic late Wednesday morning with sustained winds of 45 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center. Cristobal sprang to life after having only been given a coin-flip chance of development from the center earlier in the day.
Cristobal is forecast to be short-lived over the open ocean, but it might be joined soon by more of a tropical troublemaker.
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The center is still outlooking an area in the tropical Atlantic that has about a 80% or “high” chance of becoming at least a tropical depression late this week. There’s also an area just to the east that now has a 40% or “medium” chance of development in the coming days.
The next tropical storm that forms anywhere in the basin will be named Dolly.
Mid-August is typically when the tropics enters its busiest stretch, but any upcoming contenders for tropical development are going to be fighting an uphill battle to form and stay alive against El Niño’s influence.
Toe-to-toe with El Niño
The main challenge these systems face is El Niño’s abundant storm-killing wind shear. It’s a force that’s more likely to stick around as El Niño grows into a potentially record-breaking Super El Niño in the coming months.
Wind shear is a change in wind speed or direction at different levels in the atmosphere that can prevent storms from forming in the first place, keep them from strengthening or tear them apart completely. It’s now firmly in place over what should be the most active parts of the Atlantic.
This is the exact setup that prompted numerous predictions for a below-average season in the first place. Hurricane season has certainly been living up to those expectations so far. Through August 11, it was the least active start to the season since 2009.
Arthur and Bertha were the only tropical storms to date, until Cristobal. Both came alive right along the Gulf Coast and were battered by wind shear every step of the way, which prevented them from strengthening significantly and limited their impacts overall.
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Development chances
The upcoming tropical chances face a similar story, just in different locations.
Cristobal’s formation marks the first time this season a storm formed somewhere other than near the United States’ coastline. Fortunately, it’s not a threat to land. It will soon race into colder water and could dissipate by Thursday afternoon.
All eyes are still on the other area of the Atlantic with a high chance to form. This area of the ocean — called the main development region — should be getting very active at this point in a typical season as wind shear relaxes and water temperatures soar, providing tropical systems with ample fuel.
But thanks to El Niño, that wind shear remains stubbornly in place and has recently become record strong, according to Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane expert with Colorado State University.
There could be a window after Wednesday for the potential system with a high chance of development to get enough of a boost of energy to overcome some of the shear.
It could become a tropical depression as soon as Thursday as it tracks west across the tropical Atlantic. But it’s unclear how much stronger it could become. Computer forecast models are starting to zero in on where the system could track from there. Most are now taking it toward the eastern Caribbean this weekend, where it would continue to face more wind shear.
We’ll need to continue to monitor the medium chance of development area in the far eastern tropical Atlantic in the coming days. It’s facing similar shear issues as the area farther to its west.
Season to date
A normal Atlantic hurricane season typically has at least three tropical storms by August 3 and four by August 15. Arthur impacted the US Gulf Coast in mid-June and Bertha in late July.
The season is also behind on hurricanes: The first hurricane of the season typically forms around August 11. Hurricane Erin formed just a few days after that threshold in 2025 and 2024 had already seen two hurricanes by that point.
Mid-August to mid-October is when most tropical storms and hurricanes form, so there’s still plenty of time for tropical systems to make an attempt. However, multiple groups including the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Colorado State University are growing increasingly confident in their forecasts for a muted season overall.
NOAA released a forecast update last week that upped their chances of a below-average season from 55% to 75%. That forecast also notably dropped its range for the overall number of major hurricanes — Category 3 or greater — from one to three to zero to two.
If the 2026 season ends without a major hurricane, it would be the first time without such a powerful storm since 2013.
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