Science and TechEnergy

Actions

How long could gas prices stay high? Forecasting the Iran war

Experts say gas prices are likely to stay elevated unless and until the Strait of Hormuz is reopened.
Gas prices top $4 per gallon nationally
Man checks gas prices at the pump
Posted

Gas prices are continuing to jump: The new national average for a gallon crossed $4 on Tuesday.

“This is starting to get into consumer mindset -- an uncomfortable level," said GasBuddy's Patrick De Haan.

Molly Kenefick is paid to walk dogs. But just like millions of other workers, she depends on her car to get to her job.

"We spend an hour picking the dogs up at their homes, an hour hiking, and then an hour driving around to drop them off at home again. So, it's a lot of time in the car," Kenefick said.

Now, she says, the price of dog walking will be driven up due to soaring gas prices.

RELATED NEWS | US gas prices top $4 a gallon for the first time since 2022 amid Iran conflict

The root of the problem remains a month-long “near standstill” in the Strait of Hormuz, where about 20 percent of the world’s oil supply normally passes through daily.

The Trump administration is ramping up its rhetoric about reopening the strait.

“To Iran, open it for business, or we have options and we certainly do,” said Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth.

The U.S. released 45 million barrels of oil from its reserves earlier in March, and is committed to releasing a total of 172 million barrels. But experts say that makes little difference.

“It doesn’t come even close to offsetting the loss of supply. So, in fact, prices could well go up," said Neil Atkinson, former head of the oil markets division at the International Energy Agency.

That means $4-a-gallon gas could be here to stay.

“Gas prices likely continue going up until this strait is somewhat or partially or fully reopen," De Haan said.