In Baltimore’s Penn North neighborhood, a recent community event marked a major milestone in its work to curb violence: 365 days without a homicide.
The murder rate in Baltimore is down 23 percent in the first half of this year, and it’s not alone. Richmond, Virginia; Detroit, Michigan and Colorado Springs each saw double-digit declines.
The homicide rate was 18% lower in the first half of 2026 compared to the first half of 2025 across 30 major U.S. cities, according to a report out Thursday from the Council on Criminal Justice.
What’s behind the drop is harder to pinpoint.
"That's definitely the billion-dollar question, is 'why?'" says Ernesto Lopez, Senior Research Specialist with Council on Criminal Justice. "The declines go across to presidential administrations across a lot of cities. And so that makes understanding these trends much more complicated."
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One factor some researchers point to is the hundreds of billions of dollars injected into local governments from the American Rescue Plan, which was used in many cities to boost law enforcement and social and mental health programs.
"The scale is just absolutely unprecedented," says John Roman, director of the Center for Public Safety and Justice at University of Chicago. "It's the only story that fits the data, because it's national in scope, and the duration fits this long-term homicide decline."
Researchers also note the decline is part of a continuation of a trend that started since the pandemic when homicide rates peaked.
If it continues in the second half of the year, 2026 could have the lowest homicide rate in over a century.
