PoliticsPresidential Election


Even If Trump Wins These 5 Swing States, He'll Still Lose

The Cook Political Report released a hypothetical electoral college map, and it shows a tough road for Donald Trump.
Posted at 7:02 PM, Aug 17, 2016

Winning the general election in November is all about math because it's all about getting 270 electoral votes. 

The Cook Political Report released a new electoral college map that projects how electoral votes will be cast based on which way the 50 states are currently leaning. 

SEE MORE: What Happens If No Presidential Candidate Wins 270 Electoral Votes?

Based on its analysis, there are 21 states solidly, likely or leaning Democrat and 22 states solidly, likely or leaning Republican.

It leaves five states as toss ups — Florida, Iowa, Nevada, North Carolina and Ohio. Adding in some split votes from Maine and Nebraska, the report puts a total of 76 electoral votes up for grabs. 

The hypothetical map would give Hillary Clinton 272 electoral votes and Donald Trump 190, meaning even if Trump wins all the toss up votes, he'll still lose the election. 

Part of Trump's uphill battle comes down to the numbers. California and New York and their 84 electoral votes are solidly Democratic, and both states have voted blue in the past six presidential elections. The only big-number state that's solidly Republican is Texas and its 38 votes. 

But there's no shortage of folks, experts or not, trying to predict the outcome of the November election. 

SEE MORE: Donald Trump Says The RNC Was A Huge Success; The Polls Don't Agree

Filmmaker Michael Moore claims if Trump can win Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — four states he deems traditionally Democratic — he'll win the election. 

The Washington Post analysis says if Clinton can win Florida and all the states it deems traditionally Democratic, she'll win. 

And USA Today says a Trump win hinges on him winning Arizona, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. 

But all these hypothetical maps are likely based on polls, and polls are taken from a sample of potential voters. So we won't really know who will win until Nov. 8.