Colorado State University has released its first hurricane season activity forecast for the year, which calls for a slightly below-average year and fewer named storms than usual for 2026.
CSU forecasts 13 named storms, including six hurricanes and two major hurricanes. This is lower than the 1991-2020 average of 14.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes and 3.2 major hurricanes.
Sea surface temperatures are slightly warmer than average in the western part of the Atlantic basin, while temperatures are below average in its other regions.
At the same time, moderate to strong El Niño conditions are forecast to develop through the summer months.
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El Niño can suppress hurricane activity because strong upper-level winds disrupt developing storms.
"We anticipate El Niño being the dominant factor for the upcoming hurricane season, driving increased levels of tropical Atlantic vertical wind shear," CSU writes in its forecast.
CSU will update its forecasts in June, July and August as the hurricane season progresses through its first months. The National Hurricane Center will publish its own outlook in May.
Hurricane season will officially begin on June 1, though storms may develop before that date.
