Health insurance premiums for plans bought on the Affordable Care Act (ACA) marketplaces, often known as Obamacare, are set to increase by an average of 26% in 2026, according to a new analysis released Tuesday evening by the health research group KFF.
But that number could grow significantly if lawmakers fail to reach a deal to extend the COVID-19 era expanded tax credits that help offset ACA premium costs. And when pressed on that fact, Trump administration officials have tried to obfuscate, at times going so far as to falsely question the veracity of data highlighting the increased costs.
On Wednesday, the so-called “window shopping” period began for Americans in 30 states that rely on the federal exchange, healthcare.gov. Those consumers can now input their information and see what the costs for their 2026 plans will look like before enrollment officially begins on Nov. 1.
RELATED STORY | You can now check 2026 Obamacare plan prices — but costs could still rise
According to the KFF analysis, Americans who get their insurance through the federal exchange will actually see their premiums increase an average of 30%. The 20 states that run their own ACA exchanges will see increases of 17% on average.
But without the extension of the expanded tax credits, the amount Americans pay each month will increase by 114% on average, KFF finds. Indeed, 92% of Americans received some sort of tax credit to offset ACA costs in 2025. While not all the credits will be going away, millions could be hit with what KFF described as the “double whammy” of rising premium costs and declining government help.
During a press conference at the Department of Health and Human Services headquarters on Wednesday, Scripps News pressed top Trump administration health officials on that very fact, citing the KFF finding that Americans’ health premium costs would more than double on average.
In response, Center for Medicare and Medicaid Administrator Dr. Mehmet Oz, who oversees the ACA program, falsely suggested the KFF analysis had been “retracted.”
“They retracted that that data was run inappropriately,” Oz told Scripps News. “They changed the messaging on it. Go back and look at the website.”
Asked for evidence of the alleged retraction, HHS press secretary Emily Hilliard later sent Scripps News an article from the conservative publication “The Federalist” which noted KFF had updated one word in a graphic included in its analysis to clarify that the 114% increase applied to Americans “premium payments” after tax credits were applied, and not the gross cost of the plans before those tax credits.
The analysis itself was never retracted, however, and it remains live on the website on Wednesday.
Asked about Oz's comments, Craig Palosky, senior communications director for KFF, told Scripps News the organization "stands by its analysis that if the enhanced ACA premium tax credits expire, people currently receiving a tax credit would see what they pay out-of-pocket toward their premiums rise 114% on average."
Hilliard did not respond to subsequent inquiries about that fact.
Oz went on to highlight CMS’s own analysis that found Americans will pay an average of $13 more per month in ACA premiums in 2026 than they did in 2025.
“There can be a lot of hair pulling and scratching, mudslinging,” Oz said. “But the fundamental reality for most Americans is that although it is an increase in spend[ing], that's not the big Issue.”
Yet again, that number does not factor in the impact of the expiring tax credits. In fact, CMS’s announcement doesn’t mention the expanded tax credits or their potential impact on consumers at all.
Moreover, CMS’s analysis notes that nearly 60% eligible ACA plan consumers will have “access to a plan in their chosen health plan category at or below $50 after tax credits,” down from the "83% of eligible enrollees in 2025.”
Asked about that significant decrease in the number of Americans who will have access to an affordable plan, Oz said he’s “always concerned about Americans being able to afford payments” but claimed the ACA “promised many things that just were not delivered on,” going on to criticize the affordability of the program and suggesting nothing could be done to address it until the government shutdown ended.
But it’s not just the KFF analysis that points to significant increases in premium costs if the expanded tax credits expire. A new report from the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities (CBPP) points to similar concerns, breaking down the price increase consumers could face based on their age and other demographic information.
For example, if the expanded tax credits were extended, a sixty-year-old couple making $85,000 a year – about 401% of the federal poverty level – would see their annual health care premium costs rise by about $7,225 in 2026. But if the expanded credits are allowed to expire, that cost skyrockets to $31,846, an increase of 341%.
Some Americans are already facing this reality.
In Idaho, the first state to allow ACA sign-ups for 2026, net premium costs are up 75% from last year. That means an Idaho family of four who earn over $128,600 will see an increase of about $17,000 in their out-of-pocket costs, according to the head of the state’s ACA exchange.
Those price increases are why Democrats say they won’t back any plans to reopen the government unless the ACA tax credits are expanded. But with Republicans holding firm that they won’t negotiate about the program until the government reopens, the shutdown is likely to endure.
