JPMorgan: There's A 60% Chance Of A US Recession In The Next 2 Years

The bank predicts there's an almost 28 percent chance that the U.S. economy could dip into a recession within the next year.
Posted at 1:14 PM, Oct 19, 2018

Economists are always trying to predict when the next U.S. recession will happen.  

But according to Bloomberg, one new analysis says there's a substantial chance that it could occur in the next two years. 

A report from JPMorgan Chase & Co. estimates that the probability of the economy dipping into a recession within the next year is almost 28 percent. And according to their model, that chance increases to more than 60 percent over the next two years. 

The bank takes into consideration factors like consumer and business sentiment, labor participation and compensation growth in order to come to that conclusion.

JPMorgan's projection differs the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's, which tracks a 14.5 percent chance of a recession in one year. 

While no one knows exactly when it'll happen, other analyses have floated a similar time frame of one to two years.