A report from the McKinsey Global Institute found that roughly 11 million U.S. workers may need to transition into new occupations because of artificial intelligence and automation.
McKinsey estimates the number could range from 6 million to 16 million workers, depending on the pace of AI adoption and its impact on labor demand.
The report noted that the U.S. economy could create more jobs over the next decade than are displaced by automation. However, many workers in declining occupations may still need to transition into new roles.
According to the report, future jobs could offer higher pay, with roughly 60% of growing employment expected to fall within the top two wage quintiles. Much of that growth is projected to occur in healthcare, construction and management occupations. Meanwhile, declining employment is expected to be concentrated in office and administrative support, retail and sales, and transportation and logistics jobs.
"More than 70 percent of workers could require some level of reinvention," the report said.
Lower-income workers could be affected most, as they may be nearly eight times more likely than higher earners to need to switch occupations.
"Workers with limited savings, caregiving responsibilities, or no access to paid training may rationally decline a pathway that looks favorable on paper because they cannot absorb the interruption in income it requires," the report continued.
The report concluded that while AI could boost productivity and create opportunities, the availability of accessible pathways into new careers will be critical for workers navigating the transition.
