Rick Spinrad, former NOAA administrator during the Biden administration, told Scripps News that warnings were timely and accurate ahead of last Friday's massive Texas flooding that killed over 100 people and left dozens of others unaccounted for.
The Guadalupe River rapidly swelled between 4 a.m. and 6 a.m. on July 4, as many people in the region said they were unaware that heavy rains would cause such catastrophic flooding.
The National Weather Service issued its first flash flood warning for the region at 1:14 a.m., with the first flash flood emergency warning being issued at 4:03 a.m.
"A good three to four hours before the devastating flood hit, the Weather Service put out a flash flood warning, which used adjectives such as 'considerable' and 'catastrophic,'" Spinrad said. "So we knew there was a major event happening. The question is, even though the Weather Service did their job in getting watches and warnings and wireless emergency alerts out, were those messages received and acted upon? And right now, there's obviously a need to assess how emergency managers received information, how the people in harm's way got the information that they needed to take action."
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The flooding came amid a staffing cutback at the National Weather Service implemented by President Donald Trump. Spinrad noted that the local National Weather Service in San Antonio increased staff on hand for Friday morning's storms, but key employees were no longer present.
"We do know that at the San Antonio-Austin Weather Forecast Office, there was not a warning coordination meteorologist," he said. "That is the critical position that serves as the liaison, the connection, with the emergency managers, the one who makes sure those warnings are received and also is in steady and constant communication, should be, with the emergency managers in the area. Early indications are that because there was no warning coordination meteorologist and probably because there was a lack of communication sufficiency, the emergency managers were not able to get their discussion with the people at the weather forecast office and make the decisions that they needed to make."
Many of the deaths occurred in areas with a lack of reliable cellphone service. Given that the floods occurred in an area that has long been prone to flooding, including a deadly flood in 1987, more could have been done to prevent last week's tragedy.
Kerr County Sheriff Larry Leitha would not answer questions about who was in charge of emergency operations at the time of the flooding. He also would not answer questions on what measures were taken after the National Weather Service issued warnings.
He said answers to these questions would have to wait as his focus is on search and recovery operations, as well as notifying the next of kin of victims.
"Back in 1987, there was a very similar event," Spinrad said. "But when you combine the topography, the soil moisture and just the precipitation tendencies, a heavy precipitation event like this one, we do know will likely result in the kinds of flash floods that we're seeing over the weekend."
The devastating floods in central Texas have left families and communities in urgent need of support. Scripps News and the Scripps Howard Fund are partnering to provide critical relief to those impacted. Every dollar donated here will go directly to helping victims recover.
