By DAN WALTERS, Sacramento Bee

One of the more significant developments in California Capitol politics over the past two decades has been the evolution -- from virtual obscurity -- of the California Correctional Peace Officers Association and casino-owning Indian tribes into two very powerful interests.

As important and visible as it may be, the political stalemate over the California budget -- whether to close a whopping deficit with new taxes, spending cuts and loans -- is not truly uppermost in the minds of most legislators.

A well-established economic principle, called the "wealth effect," holds that consumers' spending is influenced more by their sense of well being than by their incomes.

This is shaping up as a make-or-break week not only on the long-stalled California budget but also on other major issues, such as water bonds, that are tied to the Nov. 4 ballot.

If you've been paying attention to California's chronic budget problems, you know that they fundamentally stem from a disastrous decision in 2000 by then-Gov. Gray Davis and legislators of both parties to squander a one-time windfall of revenue on permanent spending increases and tax cuts that could not be sustained over the long haul.

Barack Obama's historic bid for the presidency has spawned many political theories, one of which is that he could fall victim to the "Bradley Effect."

The California Supreme Court's declaration that same-sex couples can marry was morally and legally sound, but Attorney General Jerry Brown is sullying that historic act by skewing the wording of a November ballot measure that would reverse the court's ruling.

Politically, California's great debate over how to close a whopping state budget deficit boils down to an exchange of simple -- and probably simplistic -- slogans.

Two years ago, newly elected Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa vowed to put 1,000 more cops on the city's dangerous streets and proposed to raise trash collection fees to provide the money.

"Every new dollar residents pay for trash pickup," the mayor promised in a city news release, "will be used to put more officers on the streets."

A team of researchers with impeccable credentials and unquestionable independence is uttering an inconvenient truth that California and its politicians have ignored for much too long -- a peripheral canal is the least expensive, most environmentally positive way to repair the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta while maintaining vital water supplies.