Micro or Macro

Rarely have experts been more divided than the handicappers for the 2006 elections that will determine control of the U.S. House of Representatives.

Folks like Prof. Larry Sabato at the University of Virginia and Charlie Cook, who publishes a popular Washington political newsletter, agree that it's unlikely the Democrats can pick up the 15 seats they need to gain control of the House, based upon their exhaustive district-by-district reviews. This represents a micro-analysis of the race.

But pollsters, lead by The Gallup Organization and the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press, are tracking enormous voter disatisfaction largely focused upon widespread disapproval of, if not outright anger at, President Bush and his policies. Much of this is prompted by the unpopular military occupation of Iraq.

Pollsters rely upon the so-called "generic ballot" to track the odds that the House will change hands. Based upon the last 10 major national polls, Democrats are outpolling Republicans by 12.7 percentage points. Gallup's researchers estimates the GOP is in danger when the generic ballot favors Democrats by at least 11 percentage points. That's the macro approach.

Campaign 2006 is developing an interesting side issue, whether micro- or macro-political analysis is the best way to track the fight over control of Congress. Stay tuned.