Nearing the quarter poll of the BCS title chase, college football handicappers must be poring over their preseason power ratings trying to figure out what they missed.
Sure the three favorites -- Florida, Texas and Alabama -- are leading the pack. But four teams making a move on the outside -- Iowa, Cincinnati, TCU and Boise State -- weren't even supposed to be contenders.
Chances are a couple of them will pull up lame down the stretch. History is a pretty good guide in that regard.
But just the fact they're in the race, when teams like Oklahoma, Southern Cal, Ohio State, Virginia Tech and Penn State have fallen out, is pretty darn amazing.
Cincinnati wasn't even in the starting gate of either major preseason poll. Now, with a third of the season remaining, the Bearcats are positioned at No. 5 in the BCS standings.
Iowa -- which is at least unofficially the luckiest team in college football history -- has moved up to No. 4. The Hawkeyes were No. 22 in the Associated Press preseason poll.
Granted, it's been hard to believe the eyes watching Iowa escape the jaws of defeat after trailing in the fourth quarter four times so far this season. And, yes, if computers had eyes, the Hawkeyes probably wouldn't be ranked quite as high in the BCS.
But you can't discount their road victories at Penn State, Wisconsin and Michigan State, no matter how they came about. The last Big 10 team to pull off that feat was co-national champ Michigan in 1997.
Championship seasons are often made or broken on a single play, one that defines the course of a season. If the Hawkeyes somehow manage to defy the odds and make it to the BCS title game, they will look back on several.
Their latest game-changer was an eye-popping interception return for a touchdown against Indiana, the likes of which The Unbalanced Line has never seen. With the Hoosiers up by 14 in the third and two yards away from another score, Ben Chappell's pass was deflected at the line. It ricocheted off three more players before landing in the hands of Iowa's Tyler Sash, who then dashed 86 yards for a TD and huge swing that turned the game.
Everyone knows you've got to have some luck to make it to the national championship game.
In the case of Iowa, luck seemingly has no limits. A trip to Columbus to face Ohio State Nov. 14 could finally put an end to the Hawkeyes' season of miracles, if Northwestern doesn't play spoiler this Saturday in Iowa City.
As for long shots TCU and Boise -- Nos. 6 and 7 respectively in this week's BCS standings -- they need every team in front of them to stumble. The eventual winner of the SEC title game -- either Florida, Alabama or possibly even LSU if the Tigers beat the Tide Saturday in Tuscaloosa -- might even have to fall twice.
Texas figures to pull away down the stretch. The Longhorns won't face a single ranked opponent through the remainder of the regular season, and their North Division opponent in the Big 12 championship game will have at least three losses.
The Horned Frogs probably have the best outside shot. But they still have to get by No. 14 Utah Nov. 14 in Fort Worth.
Sorry Frog fans, but in the race for the BCS crown, you've got to go with the thoroughbreds that have got proven track records: Florida and Texas, neck-and-neck at the wire.
Good luck to Indiana coach Bill Lynch with getting a reasonable explanation from Big Ten officials as to how and why a replay official overturned an Indiana touchdown in the Hoosiers game at Iowa last Saturday. There is none.
Just a couple yards away from the play, the sideline official ruled Terrance Turner had a foot down in the end zone before sliding out of bounds.
"The side judge had the best view in America to make that call," said ESPN commentator Bill Curry. "How in the world do you overturn that?"
Macular degeneration perhaps?
Had Florida linebacker Brandon Spikes actually poked out one of Georgia running back Washaun Ealey's eyes, do you suppose coach Urban Meyer would have increased Spikes' eye-gouging suspension to a game, instead of a half game? Even Spikes himself must have thought coach was being too lenient; he's taken himself out of the entire game.
Given Notre Dame's porous defense and Navy's triple-option attack, which gave Ohio State fits, the Midshipmen actually have a shot to sink the Irish Saturday for the second time in 46 years. Of course, ND's Heisman-contending quarterback Jimmy Clausen may have something to say about that.
(Contact John Tucker at jtucker(at)unionleader.com)
(E-mail John Tucker at jtucker(at)unionleader.com)
UNBALANCED LINEcolumnMust credit New Hampshire Union LeaderColumn
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