Donaldson: Be realistic about Pats, Brady

They are, in the pretentious parlance of the National Football League, an Organized Team Activity.
Although, despite the lofty label, an OTA in May is almost as far removed from an actual National Football League game as a friendly game of touch football with the guys in the neighborhood is from the Super Bowl, it's hard to watch Tom Brady and the New England Patriots play catch and not think: "Wow! They could be even better this year than in 2007!"
Brady was the best quarterback in the business when he was injured early in the first game last season. He has had surgery to repair torn ligaments in his left knee, but insists he feels "as good as I could possibly feel."
Patriots fans feel not just good, but absolutely ecstatic, about the prospect of Brady once again throwing to the explosive Randy Moss and the elusive Wes Welker, who now know every nuance of the Patriots' intricate offense.
It requires a minimum of three defenders to cover those two receivers, which could leave single coverage for the recently acquired Joey Galloway, who is still fast enough to get behind many defensive backs.
Other targets for Brady include Greg Lewis, signed as a free agent from Philadelphia, and an array of tight ends -- Benjamin Watson and David Thomas, free agent Chris Baker, and Alex Smith, obtained in a trade with Tampa Bay.
The backfield has been strengthened by the addition of veteran free agent Fred Taylor from Jacksonville, a seven-time 1,000-yard rusher. Laurence Maroney is back after shoulder surgery, determined to prove he is a big-time back, and not a big-time disappointment. Sammy Morris led the team in rushing last season. BenJarvus Green-Ellis was undrafted last year as a rookie, but proved he could by counted on last year. And then there's dependable veteran Kevin Faulk, who is also a particularly dangerous receiver out of the backfield.
And then there's the offensive line -- Matt Light, Logan Mankins, Dan Koppen, Stephen Neal, and Nick Kaczur -- which is entering its fourth season as a unit.
So there is ample reason for optimism as the Patriots approach the 2009 season.
But there also is need for realism.
Good as they're likely to be, it's not realistic to expect the Pats to exceed the exceptional offensive numbers they racked up in 2007.
Let's begin with Brady.
He was nothing short of phenomenal two years ago, when he threw for an NFL-record 50 touchdowns as the Patriots racked up 589 points -- also a league record -- and went undefeated through 18 games, until Super Bowl XLII, when the Giants spoiled the Pats' perfect season in the final minute.
Brady's protection broke down in that game, as the Giants' fearsome pass rush sacked him five times while holding New England to a season-low 14 points.
He has played only one half of one quarter since then.
Never the quickest of quarterbacks, Brady, 32, will be even less mobile this season, coming off his injury and wearing a brace on his left knee for the first time in his career. Teams will be coming after him, knowing that the only way to beat New England is to pressure the quarterback. Given time -- and Brady doesn't need much -- as well as the receivers he has, he can pick a defense apart. So opposing rushers will be putting the pressure on.
Prior to his record-setting year, Brady never had thrown for more than 28 TDs in a season. So what's a realistic expectation for this year? Let's say something in the 30s.
Moss went from an NFL-record 23 TD receptions in 2007, with Brady throwing, to 11 last year, with Matt Cassel at QB. This season? Well, 17 was his previous career high, so that seems a reasonable number.
Welker has had two, highly productive years in New England, following up his 112-catch campaign in 2007 with 111 last year. If he stays healthy, he should surpass the century mark again this season.
One reason that might not happen, though, is an improved running game, which would eat up the clock. The potential is there, with Taylor and Maroney, along with Faulk, Morris, and Green-Ellis, for the Patriots to run effectively, although probably not spectacularly.
As for scoring points, let us remember that, after averaging 41.4 points through the first eight games of the '07 season, the Pats averaged a shade under 32 points in the final eight, which included a 56-10 blowout of the Bills.
Then, in the playoffs, the Patriots dropped from 31 against Jacksonville, to 21 against San Diego in the AFC title game, to just 14 against the Giants.
And, really, does even the most wild-eyed optimist think there's any chance of going 16-0 again?
It's OK to be optimistic about the New England offense. But let's be realistic, too. It's just not likely to better than it was in 2007.

(Contact Jim Donaldson at jdonalds@projo.com.)

(Distributed by Scripps Howard News Service, www.scrippsnews.com.)
columnMust credit The Providence Journal