ShareThisThe chase for home-court advantage in the upcoming NBA playoffs could come down to the final day of the season.
How important is home-court advantage?
Extremely important.
If you're not seeded No. 1 or No. 2, history suggests you won't reach the NBA Finals, much less win the title.
Of the past 20 champions, 18 have been seeded No. 1 or No. 2 in their respective conferences.
The two exceptions were the 2007 Spurs and 1995 Rockets, veteran teams that had won before. Every other champion since the 1988-89 season was seeded No. 1 or No. 2 (see chart).
San Antonio was assisted by No. 8 seed Golden State's upset of Dallas two years ago. The Spurs regained home-court advantage in the Western Conference finals after eliminating Phoenix in the semifinals.
Being the No. 1 or No. 2 seed also is critical just to reach the Finals. The past two decades, 90 percent of the teams in the Finals (36 of 40) were seeded No. 1 or No. 2.
The Knicks, a No. 8 seed in 1999, were an aberration because of the lockout year. The other exception was the 1990-91 Lakers, a No. 3 seed that benefited from No. 2 seed San Antonio losing in the first round.
Which brings us to the current season.
Races for the No. 1 seeds essentially are over. The Lakers (West) and Cavaliers (East) are locks to nail down the top spots.
But as history shows, the race for the No. 2 seed could be significant.
Orlando's win over Boston last week was huge. The Celtics and Magic split their regular-season series. It could boil down to the tiebreaker - best conference record. Boston currently owns a slight edge.
The West has six contenders for the No. 2 seed.
San Antonio, shooting for its fourth title in seven years, has the inside track but plays five of its last eight games on the road.
Houston has made a strong run without Tracy McGrady, but the Rockets face a challenging final eight games.
Denver has the easiest schedule in the West, but the Nuggets have been a .500 team in March.
New Orleans has been hot and cold and plays a brutal schedule down the stretch.
Utah might be the team best equipped to push the Lakers. But six tough road games could prevent the Jazz from moving into one of the top four slots.
A young Portland squad could use home-court advantage, but it's doubtful the Trail Blazers can climb higher than fifth.
Dallas is trying to assure it gets in by holding off Phoenix.
The playoffs don't start for a couple of weeks. But if history holds true, the first two weeks in April could be important to which two teams are still playing in June.
(Contact Mike Baldwin at mbaldwin@opubco.com.)
(Distributed by Scripps Howard News Service, www.scrippsnews.com.)
columnMust credit Oklahoma City Oklahoman
