For all the credit coaches get for their teams' postseason success, the simple fact is, the teams with the most talent usually advance the furthest in the NCAA Tournament.
The 24 teams in the past 12 national-championship games produced 61 players who are now in the NBA, and 36 of them are starters.
More significant, perhaps, is that 10 current NBA starting point guards played in one of those 12 national-title games, and that does not include Gilbert Arenas, who presumably will regain his starting spot when he gets healthy, or Jason Terry and Kirk Hinrich, both of whom spent most of their pro careers as starting point guards, or Jason Williams, the No. 2 overall draft pick in 2002 whose pro career essentially ended with a motorcycle accident in 2003.
Both point guards in last year's title game -- Kansas' Mario Chalmers and Memphis' Derrick Rose -- are starting NBA point guards as rookies.
So it's instructive to rate the top players (as college athletes, not NBA prospects) among the Sweet 16 teams, with special attention to point guard, the most critical position at this stage.
POINT GUARDS
-- 1. Ty Lawson, North Carolina: If his toe is OK, Gonzaga is in trouble. If he's a bit slow, the Bulldogs' Matt Bouldin can take advantage.
-- 2. Jonny Flynn, Syracuse: Always smiling, never tired and often flashy, Flynn could become the star of the tournament if the Orange beat Oklahoma.
-- 3. Sherron Collins, Kansas: Collins can take over games, and if he hits a few early three-pointers against Michigan State, he can score 30.
-- 4. Tyreke Evans, Memphis: Tigers are 27-0 with him at the point, but Missouri's full-court, full-game pressure will test the freshman's mettle.
-- 5. A.J. Price, Connecticut: Despite many problems, some self-inflicted, Price has emerged this season, and has been outstanding lately.
-- 6. Kalin Lucas, Michigan State: Big Ten Player of the Year could make a national name for himself by outplaying Kansas' Collins.
BIG MEN
-- 1. Blake Griffin, Oklahoma: Syracuse's zone defense will make his job tougher, and he must produce again for the Sooners to advance.
-- 2. DeJuan Blair, Pittsburgh: The country's best offensive rebounder is scary to see, and Xavier must box him out to have a chance.
-- 3. Jordan Hill, Arizona: He could prove he's a top-five NBA pick with a big game against Louisville.
-- 4. Hasheem Thabeet, Connecticut: He might eliminate Purdue's inside game, but needs to do more offensively than he did in the first two games.
-- 5. Tyler Hansbrough, North Carolina: If he dominates Gonzaga's Josh Heytvelt and gets him in foul trouble, the Tar Heels might cruise.
-- 6. Cole Aldrich, Kansas: A sophomore who is still improving, Aldrich is capable of a monster game against Michigan State.
WING PLAYERS
-- 1. Gerald Henderson, Duke: He might be the most improved player in the nation, and Blue Devils' hopes of beating Villanova rest with him.
-- 2. Terrence Williams, Louisville: Often called the most versatile player in the country.
-- 3. Sam Young, Pittsburgh: The one spectacular player on a blue-collar team, he could make the difference against Xavier.
-- 4. DeMarre Carroll, Missouri: His transition from power forward to small forward this season has paid dividends for the Tigers.
-- 5. Chase Budinger, Arizona: He must score a bunch of points for the Wildcats to have a chance against Louisville.
-- 6. B.J. Raymond, Xavier: Whether he can deal with Pitt's physical style will be critical.
(E-mail Jake Curtis at jcurtis@sfchronicle.com.)
(Distributed by Scripps Howard News Service, www.scrippsnews.com.)
columnMust credit the San Francisco Chronicle
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