ShareThisAfter their Selection Sunday sweat dries up and everyone stops debating why they snuck inside the bubble, No. 12 seeded teams often find NCAA tournament life isn't too bad.
Statistically, No. 12 has proved to be a sweet spot in NCAA bracketing. Not saddled with a looming second-round game against a first, second or third seed - which is often playing near home, as top-seeded Villanova was when it beat No. 8 Arizona in 2006 at Philadelphia - No. 12 seeds can plow paths clear to the Sweet 16.
Seven No. 12 seeds have reached the Sweet 16 in the previous 10 tournaments, including two last season, Villanova and Western Kentucky. A bubble team in 2002, 12th-seeded Missouri even reached the West Region final before Big 12 rival Oklahoma kept it from a Final Four by only six points.
Moreover, No. 12 teams have a better winning percentage in the first round than No. 11 seeds since the NCAA tournament expanded to six full rounds in 1985.
In the second round, they have a higher percentage of success than teams seeded 7 to 11, largely because of whom they play in the second game.
A No. 12 that wins in the opening round draws a No. 4 in the second game, usually not a Top 10-caliber team, and especially lucky No. 12s get a second-round date with a No. 13.
Often, No. 13s are smaller-conference teams coming off an exhilarating - and exhausting - first-round upset. So it may not be surprising that No. 12s are 3-0 over No. 13s in the past eight seasons.
Of course, the bottom line is that, most often, No. 12 seeds lose in the first round as they are supposed to do. And, aside from those rare 12-versus-13 matchups, they rarely get an easy game as long as they survive in the tournament.
"Probably the No. 1 seed has the biggest advantage in the opening round," Arizona interim head coach Russ Pennell said. "After that, I'm not sure anyone has a huge advantage."
Arizona wing Chase Budinger also is not a believer in bracket science.
"It doesn't really matter where we're at," Budinger said. "You're going to play tough teams throughout the whole tournament."
Still, as the 12th-seeded Wildcats prepare for No. 5 Utah, it may be worth revisiting these memorable first-round victories by 12 seeds over the past decade:
1. Southwest Missouri 43, Wisconsin 32 (March 12, 1999, at Charlotte, N.C.): The Bears, now known as Missouri State, held Dick Bennett's defensive-minded Badgers to just 12 field goals in their win. Then they beat No. 4 Tennessee in the second round, providing a springboard for coach Steve Alford to jump to Iowa and some much-needed publicity. "We had one guy rooting for us against Tennessee who kept calling us 'SMU,'" guard William Fontleroy told the New York Daily News. "I'm like, 'Give us a break.'"
2. Gonzaga 86, Virginia 85 (March 16, 2001, at Memphis, Tenn.): The Bulldogs headed to their third straight Sweet 16 - all, remarkably, as a double-digit seed - when Roger Mason's driving layup bounced off the rim in the final seconds. "It wasn't an upset in my mind," Gonzaga coach Mark Few said. "We've proven we're a very good basketball team." The Zags went on to beat No. 13 Indiana State easily to reach the South Regional semifinals.
3. Butler 47, Mississippi State 46 (March 21, 2003, at Birmingham, Ala.): Butler again established itself as an early-round opponent to be feared, having taken No. 4 Florida to overtime as a No. 12 in 2000 and beating No. 7 Wake Forest as a No. 10 in 2001. This time, Brandon Miller won it with a runner in the lane. "It's something you dream about when you're a kid," Miller said. "It's something you dream about when you're 23."
4. Manhattan 75, Florida 60 (March 18, 2004, at Raleigh, N.C.): The game wasn't particularly dramatic, which was the real surprise. The Jaspers, of the unheralded Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference, soundly beat the high-profile Gators, who had been anointed the nation's No. 1 team in December. "Manhattan's competitiveness was much, much better than ours," Florida coach Billy Donovan said.
5. Western Kentucky 101, Drake 99 (March 21, 2008, at Tampa, Fla.): Ty Rogers sank a 26-footer at the buzzer in overtime to put the Hilltoppers past the Bulldogs, providing a fitting end to a game that featured a tournament-record 70 three-point attempts. "Got to love the NCAA tournament, don't you?" Western Kentucky coach Darrin Horn said. "What you just saw out there is why this is the greatest show on earth."
(Distributed by Scripps Howard News Service, www.scrippsnews.com.)
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