ShareThisStories about Richard Nixon, Batman, Benjamin Button, Harvey Milk and a kid from the Mumbai slums are likely to be front and center in the race for the 81st annual Academy Awards. Nominations will be announced Thursday, Jan. 22.
Here's how I see things playing out:
BEST PICTURE
"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
I don't like this movie, but I'm in the minority. Wowed by the special effects, voters will elevate it to the pedestal.
"The Dark Knight"
The movie has hauled in near-universal praise and about $1 billion worldwide. It deserves to win Best Picture, but even a nomination is no guarantee.
"Frost/Nixon"
Director Ron Howard is an academy darling, and the film is among his best.
"Milk"
The year's most riveting political film, and a chance for Hollywood to make a statement in the wake of anti-gay election results.
"Slumdog Millionaire"
Bet the house on this not only being nominated but winning Best Picture unless "Milk" can pull off the upset.
BEST DIRECTOR
Darren Aronofsky, "The Wrestler" -- This is the top consolation prize given to a movie that everyone respects but doesn't love quite enough to bump it into the top five.
Danny Boyle, "Slumdog Millionaire" -- Even if Boyle's film doesn't win the Oscar, the buzz is he's got a death grip on the Best Director statue.
David Fincher, "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" -- I think "The Dark Knight" maestro Christopher Nolan will be the one director with a Best Picture nominee to draw the short straw. If it's not him, it will be Fincher, because directors often don't get much credit for mega-budget special-effects bonanzas.
Ron Howard, "Frost/Nixon" -- He doesn't have much of a shot, but that's what people said before Howard won the directing Oscar for "A Beautiful Mind," which also took Best Picture.
Gus Van Sant, "Milk" -- If the Picture and Director awards are split, this will go to Van Sant, who has hit the apex of his career. He was previously nominated for "Good Will Hunting."
BEST ACTOR
Leonardo DiCaprio, "Revolutionary Road" -- The film was an actor's showcase that I see landing three nominations. This would be DiCaprio's fourth acting nomination.
Clint Eastwood, "Gran Torino." -- I'd like to see Eastwood's urban opus land him Best Director and Picture nominations as well, but he'll likely have to "settle" for this, his third acting nomination (he's never won an acting Oscar).
Frank Langella, "Frost/Nixon" -- Langella won a Tony for the role on Broadway and would have had an easy route to an Oscar here if not for that darn Sean Penn.
Sean Penn, "Milk" -- The definition of the term "lock." It will be Penn's fifth nomination for Best Actor (he won for "Mystic River").
Mickey Rourke, "The Wrestler" -- Rourke gets his reward after squandering his talent for 20 years before finally showing what he can do.
BEST ACTRESS
Anne Hathaway, "Rachel Getting Married" -- Hathaway came into her own here as a family's black sheep and now asserts herself into the ranks of the best. But the idiotic "Bride Wars" may quash her chances of winning.
Sally Hawkins, "Happy-Go-Lucky" -- Hawkins is unforgettable as the relentlessly upbeat character who anchors Mike Leigh's under-the-radar film.
Meryl Streep, "Doubt" -- Streep gets Oscar nominations (14 so far, with two wins) more often than most people get oil changes.
Kristin Scott Thomas, "I've Loved You So Long" -- A downbeat and solemn turn for the British actress acting in a French film.
Kate Winslet, "Revolutionary Road" -- This could be the year the eternal Oscar bridesmaid -- she could get her sixth and seventh nominations this time around -- gets to wear the tiara.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Josh Brolin, "Milk."
Heath Ledger, "The Dark Knight."
Eddie Marsan, "Happy-Go-Lucky."
Michael Shannon, "Revolutionary Road."
Michael Sheen, "Frost/Nixon."
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Penelope Cruz, "Vicky Cristina Barcelona."
Rosemarie DeWitt, "Rachel Getting Married."
Viola Davis, "Doubt."
Marisa Tomei, "The Wrestler."
Kate Winslet, "The Reader."
(Pvillarreal(at)azstarnet.com.)
(Distributed by Scripps Howard News Service, www.scrippsnews.com.)
Must credit Arizona Daily Star
