ShareThisAt the start of the New Year, Russia publicly squabbles with Ukraine over the terms of shipping gas to the European Union, while Turkish police have announced the discovery of a very large weapons cache buried in a pine forest near Ankara.
The former dispute appears to be resolved for the moment. Ukraine has just agreed to shipping terms that Moscow has demanded. At the same time, steadily growing Russian nationalism is reflected in such high-handed handling of plentiful oil and gas resources. The collapse of the Moscow stock market has fueled the emotional fire encouraging such actions.
The Turkey case is very ominous. Government authorities have stated publicly that the arms are tied to a sizable plot to overthrow the Islamic government of the nation.
These two problems together provide the incoming Obama administration with an opportunity. Washington immediately should give high priority to Turkey as an alternate energy transshipment route. Turkey is a vital ally of the United States, second in importance only to Israel in the Middle East, but the Bush administration leaves office with our relations badly damaged.
Over the past two years, the Islamist Justice and Development Party (AKP) of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has ruled Turkey. The selection of former foreign minister and practicing Moslem Abdullah Gul as president reinforced fears of Islamic extremism and political instability. The president's wife Hayrunnisa publicly wears the religious headscarf, formally banned in public buildings, and has become an iconic figure for the rise of religion in modern Turkey.
Since the successful revolution in the 1920s led by Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, the government of Turkey has been constitutionally strictly secular. The army serves as watchdog to keep religion at bay. Four times in the past half-century, the generals have acted. At times, military intervention has been bloody. Top officers boycotted the installation of the new president.
In fact, Ankara's government is moderate and anti-terrorist. The Turkish people's support has proven an effective counter against al Qaeda and other extremist movements. Terrorist acts in Turkey have boomeranged, with considerable hostility toward those carrying out such criminal acts. There is anxiety about military intervention, but the AKP so far has operated carefully to preclude a uniformed crackdown.
Turkey's primary geo-strategic importance, to the U.S. and other nations, is overriding. The government in Ankara has placed priority on good relations with Israel. Turkey commands vital sea lanes and trade routes, including the Straits of Bosporus and potential oil and gas lines from the Caucasus. The U.S. invasion of Iraq, opposed by Ankara, has quite badly strained but not broken the bilateral alliance.
Ankara-Washington cooperation is very strongly rooted. Turkey has been actively engaged in Afghanistan, including major military command responsibilities. During the first Persian Gulf War, U.S. B-52 bombers were deployed on Turkish soil, a potentially risky move by Ankara. Turkey played a vital Allied role during the Korean War; the UN military cemetery at Pusan contains a notably large number of Turkish graves.
The Obama administration should devote renewed energy to promotion of Turkey as a route for both oil and gas from not only Russia but also other supplier states in the former Soviet Union, Middle East and Persian Gulf. That would begin to repair the severe damage to Turkey-U.S. relations resulting from the Iraq war, while partially reining in Russia.
(Arthur I. Cyr is Clausen Distinguished Professor at Carthage College in Wisconsin. He can be reached at acyr@carthage.edu.)
(Distributed by Scripps Howard News Service, http://www.scrippsnews.com)
Comment
