Jim Rice epitomizes the puzzle of voting for the Hall of Fame.
He is on the ballot for the 15th and final time, and most likely, later this month when the 2009 inductees are announced, Rice will slip in, probably along with first-time candidate Rickey Henderson.
What is confusing is how Rice finally could get support from at least 75percent of the veteran members of the Baseball Writers' Association of America this time.
It's not as if he has had an at-bat, much less driven in a run or hit a home run, in the past 20years, but somehow, after the five-year waiting period between his retirement and his first appearance on the Hall of Fame ballot, Rice has seen his support grow from 29.8 percent of the voters in 1995 to approaching the necessary 75 percent this time.
Rice did not get to the 50 percent level for the first time until 2000, and then a year ago, he came within 16 votes of enshrinement.
It doesn't make sense.
Rice was a very good player, but very good isn't Hall of Fame worthy. The Hall of Fame is for the elite of the elite of the elite.
Rice was arguably the best player on his own team only once, 1978, a season known for heartbreak in New England when the Red Sox squandered a huge lead in July and lost a one-game playoff to the Yankees. A veteran of 15 big-league seasons, he retired at age 36 in 1989, and his last three years were marginal at best. He had a combined 31 home runs and 162 RBI in those three years.
Oh, he was a definite threat at the plate, but the idea he was among the most intimidating hitters of his era is misguided.
He was issued only 77 intentional walks in his career, never more than 10 in a season. He struck out more than twice as many times as he walked (1,423to 670) and is sixth all time with 315 grounded into double plays.
INFIELD CHATTER
Here are three outfielders that are more qualified for the Hall of Fame than Rice:
-- Andre Dawson. Gold Glove center fielder with power, speed and leadership.
-- Tim Raines. A shade below Henderson, but he helped change the image of the leadoff hitter.
-- Dale Murphy. Two-time National League MVP, annual Gold Glove center fielder with power.
THE ROTATION
Henderson is the only first-time eligible to make one ballot, but he isn't the only player to receive support from this voter.
A look at one voter's ballot:
-- Henderson, outfielder. He not only holds the all-time record for stolen bases (1,406) but also runs (2,295). His 2,190 walks are second all time to Barry Bonds. Henderson, however, received only 61 intentional walks compared with 688 for Bonds, meaning Henderson drew more unintentional walks (2,129) than any player in history. He revolutionized the role of the leadoff hitter. He deserves to be a unanimous choice, but he won't be. Nobody ever has been. Tom Seaver came closer than anybody, and even he was left off five of the 430 ballots cast in his year of election.
-- Alan Trammell, shortstop. He's Ozzie Smith without the back flips and with more run production.
-- Jack Morris, pitcher. He was big time in big games.
-- Bert Blyleven, pitcher. He dominated hitters with a curveball by which all others are judged.
-- Lee Smith, closer. His career record for saves was broken by Trevor Hoffman.
OUT IN LEFT FIELD
While center fielders are not known for being big-time run producers, the position has produced more Hall of Famers -- 25 -- than any other offensive position.
There are 23 shortstops in the Hall of Fame, 21 first basemen and 21 right fielders, 19 left fielders, 18 second basemen and 16 catchers.
Paul Molitor, in 2004, became the first Hall of Famer whose primary position was designated hitter.
CLOSING STATEMENT
Mark McGwire became the first player to reach 70 home runs in 1998 and finished his career with 583 home runs, eighth on the all-time list. The numbers, however, don't add up to Hall of Fame enshrinement, and the decision has nothing to do with the cloud of performance-enhancing drugs that hovers over McGwire.
McGwire was a career .263 hitter who managed to hit .300 only three times in 15 full big-league seasons. He failed to hit above .250 four times. He had only 1,626 career hits and struck out 1,596 times.
In Bill James' statistical analysis of similar players, the four who came closest to McGwire were Jose Canseco, Jim Thome, Jason Giambi and Carlos Delgado.
BY THE NUMBERS
-- 16: The number of the projected members of Minnesota's 25-man roster will have less than three years of major league experience, meaning they won't have arbitration leverage. But after having only two arbitration candidates this offseason, the Twins could have as many as 11 a year from now.
BRADLEY MONEY
The Cubs moved right-handed pitcher Jason Marquis to the Rockies and will save $5 million on the deal, which was the financial room they needed on their payroll to sign outfielder Milton Bradley, whom the Cubs are counting on to take over in right field.
HE SAID IT
"I think teams look at what he was like when he was out of a situation that he did not feel was most pleasing and at how he performed in an environment he wanted to be in. ... I think they'll look at the totality of the circumstances and realize the impact this player can have."
-- Agent Scott Boras on why the pouting of Manny Ramirez, who forced Boston to trade him, shouldn't impact his value on the free-agent market.
(Tracy Ringolsby writes for the Rocky Mountain News in Denver, Colo. E-mail ringolsbyt(at)RockyMountainNews.com.)
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