ShareThisThe car of the future may be a hybrid, but not the immediate future.
In November, sales of the vaunted Toyota Prius dropped 46 percent while the Honda Civic hybrid plunged 68 percent. For those of you on the waiting list, the wait is over.
Unfortunately, demand for hybrids -- vehicles that use both electric and gasoline-powered motors -- have fallen victim to two overwhelming factors: plummeting fuel prices and a collapsing economy.
Hybrids demand a sticker premium over their conventionally powered competitors, though Toyota, Honda and the domestic makers seem to have swallowed some of the additional cost of the dual-powered systems. Hybrids also use batteries that eventually have to be replaced. Who knows what the economy will be like in, say, eight years? You might not be in the mood to change the batteries.
The rapidly changing fortunes of the hybrids show the folly of allowing government to dictate what kind of cars "people want to buy."
As former Chrysler Chairman Robert Eaton proposed years ago, the most efficient way to promote fuel conservation is through higher taxes. Buyers will make their choices and automakers will respond accordingly. And right now, while $4 per gallon gas is fresh on consumers' minds, it would seem like a good time to raise the fuel tax and use the revenue for economically stimulating and badly needed transportation projects.
Across the board, automotive sales were disastrous in November, falling to a level not seen since 1982 (not a good year). But November may be the best month to analyze future trends because it combined the low fuel prices and the deepening economic distress.
Before dipping into the data, one might have anticipated decent sales for small cars like the Chevrolet Aveo, Toyota Yaris, Honda Fit and Nissan Versa, more for their low prices than their miserly fuel consumption. But that was not the case. All were down, with the Fit making the best showing, falling only 8.4 percent.
But there were some winners that were a bit surprising. It appears that freshly updated, mid-size crossover vehicles enjoyed an increase in demand.
The Subaru Forester, which entered its third generation this year, saw sales soar 64 percent. Forester, sold only in all-wheel-drive with a base price of $20,660, is powered by a 2.5-liter, 4-cylinder engine. Forester travels 27 miles per gallon in the city and 20 on the highway, fairly decent figures for an all-wheel-drive vehicle.
Also rising, though not as spectacularly, were the Honda Pilot and Nissan Murano. The Jeep Liberty's sales were down sharply for the month of November over the same month in 2007, but managed a 6 percent increase over October, 2008.
The Pilot, powered by a 250-horsepower V6 engine, rose 4.5 percent over the same month in 2007, despite a fairly steep base price. Honda launched the second-generation Pilot from its Lincoln, Ala., assembly plant as a 2009 model, which explains some of the sales increase. No doubt, Honda had expected an even bigger surge.
The Murano, with more power and a lower price tag than the Pilot, enjoyed a 4.7 percent sales increase in November. Murano's 3.5-liter V6 produces 265 horses, 15 more than the Pilot's, and begins at $26,650.
Like the Pilot, the Murano entered its second generation with the 2009 model year, boasting a highly curvaceous exterior and a luxurious interior.
Nissan's smaller Rogue crossover did not do as well as the established Murano, with its sales falling 2.6 percent.
Even a couple of the big bruisers, true sport utility vehicles, saw their sales increase in November.
The Toyota Sequoia, a behemoth with a 4.7-liter, 276-horsepower V8, got a lift of 55 percent in November, though last year's sales were a small base. In rear-drive format, the Sequoia gets 14 miles per gallon in the city and 17 on the highway and costs $34,895.
Chrylser's Aspen, a rebadged Dodge Durango with an even more powerful 4.7-liter, 303-horsepower V8, rose 33 percent in November. Aspen travels 13 city and 19 highway mpg and carries a base sticker price of $35,580 for its rear-drive version.
Among traditional sedans, sales increases were few. However, the Chevrolet Malibu, the North American Car of the Year, shot up 31 percent in November. In its most basic format, the Malibu offers a 2.4-liter, 169-horsepower engine at a price of $21,395.
Also rising was the Subaru Impreza, up 4 percent. The all-wheel-drive compact has a 2.5-liter, 170-horsepower 4-cylinder engine and a base price of $18,160.
With 2009 looking to be a grim year, even these winners could take a hit. But maybe the automakers can take a hint, as well.
(E-mail Richard Williamson at motorfriend(at)sbcglobal.net)
Richard Williamson's analysis
A bit skewed Mr. Williamson. The economy dictates sales not the offerings. Gas prices dictate the offerings. Large gas guzzlers lead the loss in sales not economy models. Just because economy models are selling less (not much less) does not mean they are not what the public wants. We are in an economic "limbo" at present and the future and inevitable rises in gas prices will dictate the market for small cars versus gas guzzlers. The auto companies are severely discounting their behemoths in an attempt to dump these losers. In addition they are curtailing production levels drastically. You seem to indicate that the auto business economy is going through a temporary hiatus? Hardly. Toyota Prius and other foreign company offerings are simply catching up with demand and they will adjust units manufactured according to an anticipated downturn in ALL sales. Not "exactly" the strategy of American auto manufacturers. American auto companies have been supporting their out of proportion debt with expensive behemoths laden with accessories and not focusing on reducing costs, labor and manufacturing facilities. They do not know how to consolidate manufacturing and are the subject of great laughter in the halls of Toyota and Honda. You seem to be a plant for American auto companies.