It is well established that math's transitive property does not apply to sports, but consider it for a moment anyway:
A week ago, the Jets beat the Titans, the team with the best record in football. A week later, the Broncos beat the Jets, suggesting the Broncos can be as good as anybody in the NFL.
On the other hand, the Raiders beat the Broncos a week ago. A week later, the Chiefs, going in at 1-10, beat the Raiders, suggesting the Broncos can also be as bad as anybody.
"I think it says a lot about the NFL and just how crazy it can be," Denver quarterback Jay Cutler said after out-dueling the legendary Brett Favre in the rain at the Meadowlands to beat the hottest team in the league. "Each and every week you look at the scores and there's somebody that beats somebody they weren't supposed to. So it's an interesting year."
One man's "interesting" is another man's "wacko."
"We've been pretty unpredictable all year," coach Mike Shanahan allowed.
Through all the twists and turns, two patterns have emerged:
-- When the Broncos have an even or positive turnover margin, as they did Sunday at 2-1, they are 6-0. With a negative turnover margin, they are 1-5.
-- When Cutler is on, the Broncos win. His passer rating has been over 90 in every Broncos victory and under 80 in every defeat.
His performance Sunday was especially remarkable because of the constant rain.
"It would be easy to write off our lack of production on the conditions," Favre said, "but that wouldn't look too good considering they did produce. I told (Cutler) after the game he played outstanding, and if you play like that it's hard to be beat. He was the better man tonight."
Some quarterbacks just handle a wet ball better than others. "I don't mind it," Cutler said. "It wasn't raining too bad."
Two other phases of the game -- phases that tend to get attention only when they blow up -- were huge Sunday for the Broncos.
One is game-planning and play-calling. The Mike Shanahan/Jeremy Bates/ Rick Dennison offensive game plan was far superior to Jets offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer's. While Schottenheimer was calling a reverse in the pouring rain (fumble, touchdown Broncos) and throwing on third-and-1 (incomplete) and fourth- and-1 (sack), the Broncos were taking advantage of the Jets' defensive scheme by attacking the middle of the field.
"We got some big plays with our tight end because they do double-team the wide receivers," Shanahan said. "They do a great job defensively taking your top people out of the game. So we had to run the football, we had to get some big plays with our tight ends and then when they did blitz us we got a couple big plays with our wide receivers."
The intelligent game plan made tight ends Tony Scheffler and Daniel Graham the Broncos' leading receivers (13 catches, 149 yards) while Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal attracted most of the defensive attention.
The other phase where the Broncos excelled was pass protection. Over and over, Cutler stood in the pocket unmolested, patting the ball and making his reads in relative calm.
The Broncos offensive line has now given up eight sacks in 461 pass plays, or 1.7 percent of the time. If they finish the season with that percentage, they will rank third all time behind only the Dolphins teams of 1988 and 1989.
"It starts and ends with those guys, and they've done a great job for us all year," Cutler said.
"I think everybody just trusts each other and we've got good communication up there," said guard Chris Kuper. "Everybody's reliable. I think that's a big deal, that everybody can rely on each other."
The amazing part is that three of the five linemen are essentially newcomers. Veteran center Casey Wiegmann came from Kansas City while left tackle Ryan Clady is a rookie. Right tackle Ryan Harris is a second-year player who missed almost his entire rookie year following back surgery.
"It's unbelievable what they're doing on the outside," Wiegmann said. "And it's helped this offense so much. I totally respect what our tackles are doing. It helps set the pocket. Jay can step up. So if those guys are singled out on the outside, we're three-on-two against guys on the inside. I just can't say enough how good they're doing."
"I think it helps having Casey and Kuper because they've been in the league longer," Harris said. "We do a lot to try and communicate with each other."
These are the five unsung heroes of the season, so far.
This week, high hopes are back. Up three games in the division with four to play, it is tempting to say the playoffs are a lock. But the way predictions have worked out this season, the Broncos would probably rather you didn't.
(Contact Dave Krieger of the Rocky Mountain News at kriegerd(at)rockymountainnews.com.)
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