BCS destinies: Some in control, some not

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From college football's observation tower, the national title picture is coming into focus.No. 1 Alabama and No. 2 Texas Tech control their destinies. Yet plenty of pundits believe neither of the unbeatens will play for it, much less win it.In The Unbalanced Line's (admittedly hazy) crystal ball, Texas and Florida play for the BCS title. Texas Tech's drive to Miami comes to a crashing halt Saturday night in Norman, Okla., and the Tide gets turned by Florida in the SEC title game.Tech coach Mike Leach is living proof you don't have to play college football to have success coaching it. The Pepperdine Law School grad is 75-37 in his ninth year at Texas Tech, and his Red Raiders are within three victories of the game's biggest prize.Texas Tech has never had this much riding on a game - a Big 12 South Division title and a spot in the conference championship game, which could be a springboard to the biggest game of all. As a side note, Tech quarterback Graham Harrell's Heisman hopes are riding on the outcome in Norman as well. With all that incentive comes a ton of pressure. And in hostile territory, where Leach hasn't won in four tries, it's magnified. If Tech knocks off the Sooners, it would rank as one of college football's greatest upsets. Not because Oklahoma is that much better, but because the Sooners are among the perennial power elite. Oklahoma has won seven national championships, and five Big 12 titles since the conference was formed in 1996. Texas Tech hasn't won a single Big 12 title, let alone a national crown. Which makes it all that much harder to imagine the Red Raiders leaving Norman victorious. If No. 5 Oklahoma does end Tech's incredible run, the big question will be, do the Sooners jump No. 3 Texas in the BCS standings. If they do, they'll play Missouri for the Big 12 title. By conference tiebreaker rules, the highest ranked team in the BCS rankings represents the division in the conference championship game. For Oklahoma to get the nod, the BCS computers and polls would have to discount Texas' body of work, which includes victories over three ranked opponents, one of which is Oklahoma. If Texas and Oklahoma end up 11-1, it would be a travesty for the BCS to overlook Texas' head-to-head victory. Course, travesties and the BCS sort of go hand-in-hand, particularly where the Big 12 is concerned. Despite getting routed by Kansas State, 35-7, in the 2003 Big 12 championship game, Oklahoma managed to weasel its way into the national title game, due to the confounded BCS computers. Two years earlier, the computers came up with an even more mystifying determination: Nebraska deserved a shot at the national title after getting blown out in its final regular season game at Colorado, 62-36. The Sooners and Cornhuskers couldn't even win their conference title but got to play for a national crown. There was a poetically just outcome; both lost. Which was no consolation for the teams -- Oregon in 2001 and USC in 2003 -- that truly should have been in the BCS title game. So brace yourselves, Longhorns... You could be the odd team out. As for Tech -- unlike Nebraska in 2001 and Oklahoma in 2003 -- it can't afford a loss now and still expect to play for a national title. As the regular season winds down, Florida and USC -- Nos. 4 and 6 respectively in the BCS standings -- are playing the best football. Since losing to Ole Miss, 31-30, on Sept. 27, the Gators have outscored their next six opponents by a combined score of 299-63. The Trojans have outscored their last seven opponents, 276-46, since losing to Oregon State, 27-21, on Sept. 25. Florida controls its destiny. Win out -- which means beat Bama - and the Gators will play for it all. USC needs a lot of help. The Trojans don't even control their destiny insofar as making the Rose Bowl. If No. 21 Oregon State wins at Arizona Saturday and at home vs. Oregon next weekend, the Beavers would win the Pac-10 and a probable Rose Bowl rematch with Penn State. The Nittany Lions can capture the Big 10 title and a spot in the Rose with a win over Michigan State Saturday in State College. HOLY MACKEREL: Vanderbilt has won six games and will, in all likelihood, play in a bowl for the first time in 26 years. Michigan, college football's winningest program, won't be playing in a bowl for the first time in 34 years. In its 129-year history, Michigan (3-8) never lost this many games. You might as well make it nine -- Michigan faces 10th-ranked Ohio State Saturday in Columbus. Ouch! (Contact John Tucker at jtucker@unionleader.com) (Distributed by Scripps Howard News Service, www.scrippsnews.com.)