Texas, Alabama to fall out of BCS title chase

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Speculating on who's going to play in the BCS title game is an annual rite of college football. It starts with preseason prognostications and ends with the final BCS standings in December.Everybody -- the polls, pundits, computers and fans -- gets in on the act.At the risk of eating crow, The Unbalanced Line joins in: For starters, forget the notion Penn State could go unbeaten and get shafted by the BCS. That's about as crazy as suggesting No. 1 Texas and No. 2 Alabama will win another 10 games between them, including their conference championships Dec. 6.Rest assured, if the No. 3-ranked Nittany Lions (9-0) run the table, they'll play for the national crown. With a Nov. 8 game at Iowa (5-3) followed by home games against Indiana (3-5) and No. 21 Michigan State (7-2), Penn State's chances are real good.No. 1 Texas and No. 2 Alabama have far more difficult roads to Miami. Each has to face at least one ranked opponent away -- the Longhorns go up against No. 7 Texas Tech in Lubbock Saturday night and the Crimson Tide takes on No. 15 LSU Nov. 8 in Baton Rouge.If they clear those obstacles, there's still the matter of conference title games.Texas would probably get a rematch with No. 14 Missouri in the Big 12 title game; the Longhorns won the first meeting, 56-31, on Oct. 18. Alabama would play the winner of Saturday's clash between No. 6 Georgia and No. 8 Florida. The Unbalanced Line's call: Gators beat the Bulldogs by nine.So far, Texas has the best BCS title game resume of any Football Bowl Subdivision team. If the Longhorns get by the Red Raiders Saturday, it would mark their fourth straight victory over a ranked opponent, three of them unbeaten and in the Top 10.But as national championship pressure mounts on Texas, Alabama and Penn State, the odds tend to swing more heavily in favor of the opponent, especially if it's an explosive offensive team like Texas Tech -- and it's playing at home. Which is why Texas is apt to fail its first tough road test.Alabama and Penn State are different stories: The Tide handed then No. 6 Georgia its only loss, 41-30, a month ago in Athens. Penn State is coming off a 13-6 victory over then No. 10 Ohio State in Columbus. And their foes next weekend aren't as formidable as Texas Tech.So expect Bama to come away from Death Valley with a win over LSU, and Penn State to take care of business in Iowa City.Where's that leave us in the BCS title picture?Big 12 South teams continue to knock each other out. Texas Tech falls to either Oklahoma State or Oklahoma, or both, in the ensuing weeks. At season's end, there's not a single unbeaten team in the conference.In the meantime, No. 8 Florida runs the table in the SEC.Texas, with a single loss, still makes the Big 12 title game and beats Missouri a second time. But despite its impressive resume, the Longhorns can't top Florida's win over then No. 1-ranked Alabama in the SEC championship game. Maybe in the computers, but not in the polls, and the polls have more weight in the BCS formula.So, for the sake of speculation, here we go again: An unbeaten Big 10 team versus a one-loss SEC team. No. 1 Penn State versus No. 2 Florida for the national crown. Shades of 2006, when Florida crushed Ohio State, 41-14, in the BCS title game?Not quite. Joe Paterno-coached teams have had considerable success against SEC teams in bowl games, including a 27-23 national championship victory over top-ranked Georgia and Heisman-winner Herschel Walker in the 1983 Sugar Bowl. Since 1974, the Nittany Lions are 7-4 against the SEC in bowl games.How can you not trust the winningest coach in college football's top tier to win another national title, even at age 82? Take Joe Pa, and his Spread HD offense to reach the peak.As a side speculation, Virginia's Al Groh wins coach of the year and his Cavaliers win the ACC.If the Jimmy V Award for Perseverance were to go to a college football team, Virginia wins hands down. The Cavaliers could have easily given up after a 1-3 start that included three blowouts to USC, Connecticut and, of all people, Duke.Amazingly, Virginia has won four straight in October, including back-to-back upsets of then No. 18 North Carolina, 16-13, and then No. 18 Georgia Tech, 24-17, last weekend.And now the Cavs sit all alone atop the ACC Coastal division, with a 3-1 conference record (5-3 overall). (Contact John Tucker at jtucker@unionleader.com)(Distributed by Scripps Howard News Service, http://www.scrippsnews.com)