College football has humans computers at odds again

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When it comes to college football rankings, humans and computers see eye-to-eye about as often as Obama and McCain.And, like the presidential candidates, their credibility is fair game. Historically, you could have a field day with the polls (Harris and USA Today) and six computer rankings used in the cockamamie BCS formula that determines its standings, and ultimately its national championship game.Who could forget the outrageous BCS fiasco of 2003, when Oklahoma managed to steal a spot in the BCS title game right after getting drubbed by Kansas State, 35-7, in the Big 12 championship game?Somehow the computers still figured Oklahoma to be the No. 1 team in the country, and back then, they had more weight in the BCS formula.Consequently, USC, the consensus No. 1 team in the Associated Press writers' poll and USA Today coaches' poll, lost its rightful spot in the BCS title game, because the computers ranked the Trojans No. 3. And we ended up with a split national championship, after USC beat Michigan, 28-14, in the Rose Bowl, and LSU beat Oklahoma, 21-14, in the Sugar Bowl. The AP crowned USC, and the coaches -- because they had to -- crowned LSU.Fortunately, some tweaking of the BCS formula followed the debacle of 2003, making a repeat less likely to happen, although with the AP poll no longer married to the BCS, it's still possible.The credibility of the entire BCS system will remain under the microscope, since it is still based, in great part, on conjecture. In 2006, the Florida Gators were ranked ninth in the Harris poll and 10th in the coaches' poll, in the first set of standings. The computers had them ranked fourth. Florida climbed to No. 2 in the standings by season's end and smoked No. 1-ranked Ohio State, 41-14, in the BCS title game.In the first BCS standings of 2007, Ohio State was No. 1, boosted by its top ranking in the polls. But the computers had the Buckeyes in a fifth-place tie with Arizona State. South Florida was No. 2 in the standings and No. 3 in the polls in mid-October. The computers had the Bulls -- who plummeted from the polls altogether by season's end -- ranked No. 1. The eventual champion, LSU, was ranked fifth in the BCS polls and No. 2 by the computers.In the final analysis, the humans and computers were both wrong, though it's worth noting if the computers had had their way last postseason, Virginia Tech would have played LSU in the BCS title game. The computers had the Hokies -- who lost to Kansas, 24-21, in the Orange Bowl -- ranked No. 1 in the final BCS standings. At least for the time being, the humans and computers concur on the top two teams -- No. 1 Texas and No. 2 Alabama -- and on No. 4 Oklahoma. But that's about it.All three major polls rank Penn State No. 3, while the computers rank the Nittany Lions No. 7, two spots below fifth-ranked Ohio State. The polls rank the Buckeyes No. 10.That difference will be settled Saturday in Columbus, where Penn State is 0-7 since joining the Big 10 in 1993. The Nittany Lions are the better team, especially on offense, but they'll need to play their best to beat the Buckeyes in the Horseshoe. The Unbalanced Line's call: Penn State 31, Ohio State 20.Another significant computer/poll discrepancy involves Southern Cal, although the computers' lack of love for the Trojans hasn't affected their place in the BCS standings. USC is ranked fifth in the Harris poll, fourth in the coaches' poll and fifth in the standings, despite a computer ranking of 10th.It might be difficult to determine who's closer to being right... Not one of Southern Cal's six remaining opponents is ranked. But if schedule strength is taken into account, the Trojans are overrated in the polls.There's also a pretty sizeable discrepancy involving Oklahoma State, with the Harris and USA Today polls ranking the Cowboys eighth, and the computers ranking them No. 3. An upset of Texas in Austin Saturday could go a long way to settling that dispute, but don't count on it. The Longhorns are firing on all cylinders.The most glaring discrepancies between humans and computers in the first set of 2008 BCS standings involve No. 11 LSU and No. 14 South Florida, whose computer rankings are No. 19 and No. 23 respectively. Erroneously, the computers have LSU in a tie with Northwestern, which is ranked No. 26 in the Harris poll and 24th in the coaches' poll.As we've learned from past BCS experience, there's plenty of room for human error, too.So let's just hope the polls spare us football's hanging chad this time around.(Contact John Tucker at jtucker@unionleader.com)(Distributed by Scripps Howard News Service, www.scrippsnews.com.)