Home

First BCS ratings tell us little

Submitted by SHNS on Tue, 10/21/2008 - 18:17

Upon glancing at the first Bowl Championship Series ratings released Sunday evening, we're reminded of a scene from the 1983 sci-fi thriller "War Games.''Playing an Air Force general in charge of Strategic Air Command, Barry Corbin asks the computer expert (played by the underrated Dabney Coleman) who ran the system that replaced officers in nuclear silos for a course of action when the computer falsely indicates a full-scale Soviet nuclear missile attack on the United States."What does (the computer) suggests we do in response?'' Corbin asks."Launch a full-scale retaliatory strike,'' says Coleman."Like I need a computer to tell me that,'' groans Corbin.Similarly, it's not like we really need two human and six computer rankings systems to tell us the top three teams in the nation are Texas, Alabama and Penn State. Oklahoma is a shade better than USC at fourth and we see Oklahoma State overvalued a bit at sixth ahead of the likes of Georgia, Ohio State, Florida and LSU.But these rankings are all but meaningless with so much thrilling football remaining. Currently, there are actually nine D-I teams undefeated, the most ever for the first BCS standings. Sure right now, the juggernaut No. 1 Longhorns look like they could win the AFC East while the Crimson Tide's defense puts the NFC West to shame.And yes, it's true that at least one of the two teams ranked 1-2 in all 10 of the initial BCS rankings has made it to the title game. But haven't we seen enough craziness in the last season-and-a-half that it's plausible -- if not probable -- that neither the Longhorns or Crimson Tide will be in Miami for the Jan. 8 title game?Don't get us wrong, it would be great to see these two titans, who haven't met since Texas beat Bear Bryant and Co., 14-12, in the 1982 Cotton Bowl, square off. And as sage Longhorns fans are quick to remind, the 'Horns have never failed to hook the Tide with a 7-0-1 mark against 'Bama.Yet does anybody remember that the Tide was washed away in November last year to the tune of an 0-4 mark? Meanwhile, Texas has lost to rival Texas A&M to end each of the last two regular seasons.And the schedule is favorable for neither. The Tide faces a wicked Nov. 8 trip to LSU and likely either Florida or Georgia in the SEC Championship Game while Texas faces Oklahoma State Saturday with minefield games at high-octane offenses Texas Tech and Kansas in November and the Big 12 title game also on the horizon.Joe Paterno's No. 3 Nittany Lions are actually looking best for Miami. But it will still require a win at Ohio State Saturday night, something JoePa has failed to do in seven tries since joining the Big Ten in 1994, as well as handling Big Ten weaklings Iowa and Indiana and gritty Michigan State, who beat Penn State last year.Should the No. 4 Sooners and No. 5 Trojans each somehow finish with just one loss, Oklahoma would almost surely win out among voters and the computers considering USC isn't likely to face another ranked team due to the woeful Pac-10 along with the ordinariness of Notre Dame.The real drama of the rankings is found outside the top 10 where No. 11 Utah, No. 12 Boise State, No. 14 TCU and No. 19 Tulsa all harbor dreams of busting into a BCS at-large game. A one-loss TCU team might win a popularity contest over unbeaten Boise State considering the Mountain West's superiority over the WAC.Finally, it's important to ponder the other overachievers who are in these first BCS rankings (Georgia Tech, Pittsburgh, Northwestern and Minnesota) and the spectacular flops from the Associated Press preseason poll that are missing (Tennessee, Clemson, Michigan and Arizona State, a combined 10-17).This is further proof that preseason polls are not only useless but should also be abolished. Simply come up with the first polls at the end of September, after everyone has played three or four games. Reward teams for what they are now, not what happened last season.UPSET PICK: Missouri's no-show broke our three-game winning streak as we fell to 3-5. Let's try Arizona State to get off the deck and ambush 4-point favorite Oregon Saturday night in Tempe.LINDSAY'S LOSER: Woe is Washington State. Amid a series of injuries and assorted woes, the Cougars are 1-7 with their only win over I-AA Portland State. They're seven losses to I-A foes are by a combined 376-63 including Saturday's colossal 69-0 embarrassment at home to USC, WSU's worst defeat in 111 years of football.Having given up over 60 points in four times, some pundits say the Cougars are the worst team in Pac-10 history. We still lean toward the 1980 Oregon State Beavers, who went 0-11 including losses to Wyoming and Long Beach State and were outscored 386-108, losing only once by less than 20 points.(E-mail John Lindsay at lindsayj(at)shns.com. Distributed by Scripps Howard News Service, http://www.scrippsnews.com)