ShareThisNASHVILLE, Tenn. -- Two new statewide surveys underscore why Tennessee isn't a battleground in the presidential race: Both show Republican John McCain with a double-digit lead over Democrat Barack Obama in the Volunteer State.The results come one week before the presidential contenders meet in Nashville for their second debate Oct. 7 at Belmont University.The newest Middle Tennessee State University Poll, conducted Sept. 15-27 by the College of Mass Communication at MTSU, shows McCain leading Obama 55 percent to 35 percent among registered and likely voters and 48 percent to 36 percent among adult Tennesseans regardless of voter registration.Surveys of registered, likely voters are a more accurate indication of the outcome of an election than a sampling of the overall population.A separate poll conducted Sept. 22-24 by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research for the Chattanooga Times Free Press shows McCain leading Obama 55 percent to 39 percent among registered, likely voters in the state.Both polls found that only 7 percent to 10 percent of likely Tennessee voters are undecided, indicating there is little chance Obama will overtake McCain in the state."Most Tennesseans appear to have made up their minds with regard to who they think should be the next president," said Dr. Jason Reineke, associate director of the MTSU poll. "Among McCain's supporters, 93 percent say they are certain they will vote for him, leaving only 7percent who say they may still change their minds."Similarly, 90 percent of Obama's supporters say they are certain they will vote for him, with only 10 percent stating they might change their minds."Not surprisingly, MTSU pollsters also found that the economy has overtaken the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan as the most pressing national concern of Tennesseans. Some 53 percent of Tennesseans name the economy and job issues as the No. 1 national problem."Typically, the top issue attracts only about a 20 percent consensus, so a 53 percent consensus is truly extraordinary," said Dr. Bob Wyatt, director of MTSU's office of communication research, which sponsored the poll."The energy crisis, though related to the economy, is mentioned by just 8 percent, and the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan by just 5percent. This spread between the top problem and other issues is also unprecedented" in the 10 years MTSU has been conducting its survey.In fall 2006, 22 percent rated the wars as the top issue, followed by terrorism.The MTSU poll was conducted by telephone by MTSU students who interviewed 635 people 18 and older chosen at random. Of those, 357 were designated likely voters because they said they had voted in the 2006 U.S. Senate race, are registered to vote and said they plan to vote for president Nov. 4.(Richard Locker is Nashville Bureau Chief for The Commercial Appeal in Memphis, Tenn.)
Polls show McCain with decisive lead in Tennessee
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