Sweep looms for Red Sox-Angels, but which way?

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Sportswriters, like lawyers, can argue both sides of a case. They just don't get paid as much to do it. Bearing in mind that you get what you pay for, here is an argument for why the Red Sox could sweep the Los Angeles Angels in the American League Division Series that opens Wednesday night in Anaheim. And also one for why the Angels could sweep the Red Sox. First, there's the History Argument. The Red Sox never lose to the Angels in the postseason. Boston and Anaheim have met three times in the playoffs and the Red Sox have won every time. The last time was just last year, when Boston swept Los Angeles in the Division Series by scores of 4-0, 6-3 and 9-1. The Hose also swept the Halos in the ALDS in '04. And if you notice a trend here between Boston's wins over Anaheim in the opening round and subsequent World Series victories, feel free to add that to reasons for Red Sox rooters to feel optimistic. David "Big Papi" Ortiz pounded the ball in both of those series. In '04, he went 6-for-11, with a homer and four RBI. He was even better last year, going 5-for-7, with two homers and three RBI. The Angels were so afraid to pitch to Papi that they walked him six times. It was David Henderson who was Boston's hero against the Angels in the A.L. Championship Series in 1986. With the Sox one strike away from elimination in Game 5 in Anaheim, he hit a two-run homer that gave Boston a 6-5 lead. Although the Angels tied the score in the bottom of the ninth, the Red Sox wound up winning, 7-6 in the 11th, when Henderson hit a sacrifice fly to bring in the deciding run. The flip side is that all that's ancient history. That was then, this is now, and the Angels have owned the Red Sox this season, winning eight of nine games, including five of six at Fenway Park -- which shouldn't be all that surprising, considering that the Angels compiled the best road record in baseball, a dazzling 50-31. The Red Sox were only 39-42 away from Boston. Next, there's the Pitching Argument. In Josh Beckett, Jon Lester and Daisuke Matsuzaka, the Red Sox can send three starters to the mound capable of blanking any team -- even one with as potent a lineup as the Angels. Because the Angels opted to play five games, if necessary, over eight days, rather than seven, Boston won't have to turn to either Tim Wakefield or Paul Byrd to take the ball in Game Four. Beckett, who was 4-0 last year in the postseason with a miniscule ERA of 1.20, could start twice. The question is whether manager Terry Francona chooses to use Dice-K, who was 9-0 on the road and 9-2 at Fenway, but has had problems lasting even six innings, in Game 2, or go with Lester, who was 11-1 at home, but only 5-5 on the road. But the Angels have quality starters, too. John Lackey is their best, although he doesn't have the best record because he missed the first six weeks of the season. Lackey, who'll start the ALDS opener, is 12-5, while Ervin Santana is 16-6 and Joe Saunders is 16-7. Anaheim has the edge in the bullpen, especially in set-up men. Both teams have star closers. Francisco Rodriguez is the majors' runaway saves leader, with 62. Jonathan Papelbon has 41, with an ERA of 1.98 to Rodriguez's 2.27. I prefer Papelbon, but there are those who would opt for Rodriguez. Then there's the Injury Issue. Boston third baseman Mike Lowell, the MVP of the 2007 World Series, is hurting with a partially torn labrum in his right hip. Right fielder J.D. Drew, who hit a combined .350 in the '07 ALCS and World Series, went down in mid-August with back problems. Combine those injuries with the weak offensive numbers of catcher Jason Varitek (.220), slumping shortstop Jed Lowrie (.213 over the last month) and Mark Kotsay (.222, with no homers since coming to Boston), and it's easy to see why the Angels like their chances. Then again, it's the Red Sox who are the defending champions, winners of two of the last four World Series. They have to feel that, if they can get past the Angels, they can win it all again. Boston certainly is capable of sweeping the Angels. Of course, it's also true that the Angels are capable of sweeping the Red Sox. Having said all that, it appears both teams are too good to lose three in a row.(Contact Jim Donaldson at jdonalds@projo.com.)(Distributed by Scripps Howard News Service, www.scrippsnews.com.)