College football investing 101

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With the volatility in college football these days, it's enticing to invest in the hopes and dreams of a team like East Carolina. Especially after the Pirates have stolen the show by knocking off ranked opponents two weeks in a row.And it sure would be great for the game if one of those little engines that could, actually did climb to the top of the BCS Mountain. But when you look at what they're up against, it's not likely to happen anytime soon.When it comes to the chase for college football's Holy Grail, it's still about the blue-chippers, like No. 1 USC and No. 5 Ohio State. Which is why far more stock is invested in their prime time matchup Saturday in Los Angeles.Abundantly aware of how small-cap teams generally perform over the season's long haul, the polls weren't ready to buy into the Pirates after their 27-22 season-opening victory over Virginia Tech. But on the heels of East Carolina's dominating 24-3 victory over West Virginia, the Pirates' stock surged to No. 14 in the AP's Top 25.Still, it's probably wise to remember how South Florida, South Carolina and Kentucky climbed to the Nos. 2, 6 and 8 spots in the AP poll by the midpoint of last season, only to come crashing down. By season's end, Kentucky and South Carolina had fallen from the polls altogether.Last season's Sugar Bowl matchup between Georgia (10-2) and unbeaten Hawaii also provides a reminder of how small-cappers often stack up against the blue-chippers: Georgia 41, Hawaii 10.But unbeaten Boise State's incredible 43-42 overtime victory over Oklahoma in the 2006-07 Fiesta Bowl did offer a glimmer of hope to non-BCS teams. At the end of the day, however, Boise (13-0) finished no higher than fifth in the final polls.Now come East Carolina, BYU, Fresno State, Utah... And Rice? Hey, the Owls have won their first two games for the first time since 2004, thanks to a 22-point rally in the final 6:28 of their 42-35 victory at Memphis last weekend. Their stock has risen, but now's not the time to buy; it's likely to fall after a trip to Vanderbilt Saturday.The Unbalanced Line also advises week traders against buying into No. 21 Fresno before it hosts No. 10 Wisconsin Saturday. If the Bulldogs -- who never shy away from the big boys -- knock off the Badgers, load up. They could run the table. Hold onto your Utah stock; it'll keep rising. The No. 22 Utes' boom or bust game isn't until Nov. 22 against BYU in Salt Lake City.As for No. 18 BYU's stock, it was devalued after the Cougars barely escaped Washington with a 28-27 victory, tainted by an abhorrent unsportsmanlike conduct call. Huskies' quarterback Jake Locker was flagged for "throwing the ball high into the air," after scoring a TD with two seconds left in the game. The penalty resulted in a 35-yard extra-point kick that was blocked.The Pac-10 said officials got the call right. By the letter of the law, that may be true. But there is such a thing as using discretion, which would have been right to do. Even national coordinator for college football officiating, David Parry, acknowledged, "I think it's safe to say on emotional moments, officials might become a little more lenient."As for those investment strategies. The best buy among small-cappers remains East Carolina. Granted, we'll have to keep an eye on how the Pirates' first two opponents perform from here on out. It could be Virginia Tech and No. 25 West Virginia were way overvalued to start the season; the Hokies were No. 17 and the Mountaineers, No. 8. Or, it could be East Carolina is just that good.If you're a Pirates' stockholder, don't even think about selling, at least not before their Nov. 2 trip to Orlando, where they'll battle Central Florida for the Conference USA East Division crown. The Knights proved themselves a formidable foe in a 31-24 overtime loss to the No. 19 South Florida Bulls.Those Bulls could make everyone Bullish with a victory over No. 13 Kansas Friday night in Tampa.Some non-BCS stocks are performing well, but if you're a season-long investor -- and not just a week trader -- rely on the Standard & Rich index.Which means, bank on the blue-chippers. Minus some whose stock has fallen -- like Michigan, Miami, Florida State and Notre Dame. Especially Notre Dame.The Irish were darn lucky to pull out a 21-13 victory over San Diego State last weekend in South Bend. According to the odds makers, take your pick between the Wolverines and the Irish Saturday. The Unbalanced Line takes Michigan.As for the slugfest in L.A., can the Trojans' stock go any higher?(Contact John Tucker at jtucker@unionleader.com) (Distributed by Scripps Howard News Service, http://www.scrippsnews.com)