Palin, plus husband, could push swing states to McCain, analysts say

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WASHINGTON -- Democrats do not think that Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin's arrival in the enemy camp changes Sen. Barack Obama's path to the White House. As far as they're concerned, Republican John McCain's running mate is President Bush.As Obama told voters in Pennsylvania, "This race is not a personality contest."That bet is about to be tested.Independent observers in Ohio think Palin does change the race, enhancing the GOP's appeal -- not among the women who supported Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, but among white men. They say Palin's most potent weapon may even be her snowmobiler, union husband, Todd."If you see him turning up in Appalachian Ohio and up in Canton and Warren and the old steel towns, I think he would play very, very well," said Ken Heineman, an Ohio University political analyst. "If they try to go after his DUI conviction, jeez, his whole up-from-the-blue-collar thing? He's going to resonate very well among swing voters and among male Democrats, the blue-collar Democrats that Obama did not win in the primary. He would be an incredibly appealing figure, and of course, she is herself."Discussions are underway to deploy Todd Palin, a McCain aide said, even though he has taken leave from his oil-field job to care for the couple's five children.At the Democratic convention in Denver, Obama campaign managers were touting their ambitious plans to compete in 18 battleground states. They have since scaled back plans to try to win such long shots as Georgia and are now focused on holding states that Democrat John Kerry won in 2004, such as Pennsylvania, and nabbing a few that Bush narrowly won, including Virginia, Colorado and vote-rich Ohio.Obama advisers have long asserted that the linchpin of their strategy is the so-called enthusiasm gap between Democratic and Republican voters. Palin's candidacy has scrambled that equation by electrifying the conservatives who had been lukewarm about McCain. That has freed him to court the swing voters who have been his strongest supporters. Independent swing voters make up about 15 percent of the electorate, and much more in battleground states. They are predominantly male and white and over 40."These are folks that may have a problem with Obama," said Gerald Austin, a Democratic strategist who worked for Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland. "They may say it's his experience, but we know it's because of his race. But they also have problems with George Bush, who they don't want for another term, and they see McCain that way, so they have a real dilemma."Any McCain gains among this group could be offset, Austin said, by the huge numbers of young people, aged 18 to 31, who have flocked to Obama and are generally outside the reach of pollsters because they use cell phones."I don't think Obama's game has changed because they picked Palin," Austin said. "I think what Republicans would like is for Democrats to pay attention to Palin."Besides, Austin said, "The last time I looked, she's not running for president."Vice presidential picks have seldom had much effect on presidential races. Even Dan Quayle, who was clobbered in his campaign debate, did not stall President George H.W. Bush's victory over Michael Dukakis in 1988.On paper at least, Obama has plenty of advantages. President Bush and the Republican Party remain highly unpopular, and Obama has excited and expanded the electorate while collecting record amounts of campaign contributions.McCain, however, has managed to remain far more popular than his party or his president. Independent voters and even some Clinton Democrats, once called Reagan Democrats, are not sold on Obama. Several unaffiliated observers said Palin could appeal to these voters too, despite her conservative views."I'm not talking about the 'hot governor' thing," said media strategist Bill Hillsman, who specializes in swing voters. "I'm talking about people, particularly in the Upper Midwest, the Pacific Northwest and the Mountain states who are outdoors people. They like camping, they like fishing, they like hunting, they own pickup trucks, they own ATVs (all-terrain vehicles), they own boats, they own snowmobiles. So they may really like this notion of having a rootin' tootin' governor from Alaska on the ticket."(Distributed by Scripps Howard News Service, www.scrippsnews.com.)