Red Sox bullpen key to second-half fortunes

The oddsmakers around the country like the Boston Red Sox' chances to not only repeat as American League East champs, but also to make it to the World Series with a chance to also successfully defend the championship they won a year ago.

That's what's being written.

Of course, as the cliche goes, games aren't played on paper. They are played on the field, and while Boston is in first place, a half-game ahead of Tampa Bay, the Red Sox tonight open the second half with a post-All-Star break road trip in Anaheim, Calif. against the Los Angeles Angels, the top team in the A.L. West and a likely candidate for a postseason berth.

While it's likely there will be October baseball again in Boston, the Red Sox are hardly a lock.

The key for Boston, or any team in the playoff hunt, is to stay healthy, maximize strengths and shore up weaknesses as the dog days of summer threaten to turn the regular-season marathon into a Heartbreak Hill for the contenders.

The Red Sox certainly have strengths.

Boston has quality starting pitching, and depth in this crucial area, to boot. The Sox' offense, which was productive and varied enough to produce a 57-40 record before the All-Star Game despite missing David Ortiz for six weeks, is expected to get a boost when Ortiz returns in about a week.

The defense is sound, maybe even a bit tighter with error-prone shortstop Julio Lugo on the disabled list. And the closer's role is filled by one of the game's best, Jonathan Papelbon.

So what weaknesses do the Red Sox need to address, particularly as the non-waiver trading deadline of July 31 looms?

Basically, it comes down to one major potential trouble spot -- the bullpen.

Not Papelbon, of course, but the setup men. The Red Sox' bullpen has been plagued by inconsistency in getting through the seventh and eighth innings before Boston can call on Papelbon to slam the door in the ninth.

Manny Delcarmen has been the most dependable reliever over the last two months or so, though he, too, has had a meltdown moment or two. The rest of the relievers? Manager Terry Francona and pitching coach John Farrell have been running out David Aardsma, Hideki Okajima, Craig Hansen, Javier Lopez and Mike Timlin and crossing their fingers, hoping for the best because from night to night there is that air of uncertainty when the bullpen door opens.

If general manager Theo Epstein should feel the need to improve the team's second-half chances, this may be his major area of concern. But swinging a July 31 deal for an established bullpen guy is no guarantee of success, and no one has forgotten last year's disastrous trade-deadline deal for Eric Gagne.

Epstein and the Red Sox, though, may have a homegrown answer to bolster the bullpen in the person of Justin Masterson, a rookie starter sent down to Class AA Pawtucket just before the break to become "reprogrammed" as a reliever. The right-hander's funky delivery and nasty stuff could prove to be just the setup answer the Sox may be seeking.

If so, in the team's evaluations over the next two weeks, Epstein may turn his attention to acquiring a little more thump to the lineup. Then again, if Ortiz returns and is healthy, that need also is minimized.

Simply put, the Red Sox are in good shape heading to the trading deadline and beyond, not forced to ship away promising youngsters for a quick fix to plug a major hole because the team does not have a major hole.

Naturally, injuries could quickly change that situation, but already Boston has been able to replace Lugo with prospect Jed Lowrie.

With personnel issues seemingly under control, the intangibles come into play, such as the schedule.

It's common to look at the second half and try to determine whether the schedule is easy or difficult based on the opposition, and to try to compare one team's schedule to another.

A lot can be made of a team's winning percentage at the break and extrapolate a strength-of-schedule index based on that number, but really, how meaningful is that exercise?

While it can be logically expected that the better team will win a series from the likes of the Mariners and the Royals, nothing is a given despite a team's won-lost percentage, witness last-place Cleveland's four-game sweep of then-first-place Tampa Bay the last weekend.

So in looking ahead at the schedule it is folly to project a second-half won-lost record or determine whom has the softer schedule based simply on the first-half winning percentages.

One factor that can't be ignored is home-road records. And this is where the Red Sox may have a slight advantage. Their second-half schedule features 34 home games at Fenway Park and 31 on the road. Boston went 36-11 at Fenway in the first half, trailing only the Chicago Cubs and the Rays for home wins.

Best for the Red Sox is that of the nine games they have remaining with the Yankees, six are at home, including the final three of the regular season.

The bottom line is that the Red Sox hold their destiny in their own hands as the second half dawns, well positioned to return to the postseason.

(Contact Steven Krasner at skrasner@projo.com.)

(Distributed by Scripps Howard News Service, www.scrippsnews.com.)