ShareThisSAN FRANCISCO -- Sen. Barack Obama aims to reverse Republican Richard Nixon's famous "Southern Strategy" of appealing to white voters by increasing African American turnout to try to make inroads in the Republican stronghold. States are listed in descending order of their likelihood to swing Democratic this fall.Virginia: 13 electoral votes. Population 73.3 percent white, 19.9 percent African American. Average of polls compiled by Real Clear Politics: Obama plus 0.5 percent. 2004 results: Democrat John Kerry 46 percent, President Bush 54.North Carolina: 15 electoral votes. 74 percent white, 21.7 percent African American. RCP average: McCain plus 4.2. 2004: Kerry 44 percent, Bush 56.Georgia: 15 electoral votes. 65.8 percent white, 29.9 percent African American. RCP average: McCain plus 8.4. 2004: Kerry 41 percent, Bush 58.Mississippi: 6 electoral votes. 60.9 percent white, 37.1 percent African American. June Rasmussen poll: McCain plus 6. 2004: Kerry 40 percent, Bush 59.South Carolina: 8 electoral votes. 68.5 percent white, 29 percent African American. Rasmussen poll: McCain plus 9. 2004: Kerry 41, Bush 58.Louisiana: 9 electoral votes. 65.4 percent white, 31.7 percent African American. RCP average: McCain plus 13.4. 2004: Kerry 42 percent, Bush 57.Texas: 34 electoral votes. 82.7 percent white, 11.9 percent African American, 35.7 percent Hispanic. RCP average: McCain plus 11.3. 2004: Kerry 38 percent, Bush 61.Arkansas: 6 electoral votes. 81.1 white, 15.9 African American. Rasmussen poll: McCain plus 9. 2004: Kerry 45 percent, Bush 54.Tennessee: 11 electoral votes. 80.4 percent white, 16.9 percent African American. Rasmussen poll: McCain plus 15. 2004: Kerry 43 percent, Bush 57.Alabama: 9 electoral votes. 71.2 percent white, 26.3 percent African American. June AEA/Capital poll: McCain plus 24. 2004: Kerry 37 percent, Bush 63.Sources: Real Clear Politics, Rasmussen and AEA/Capital polls; San Francisco Chronicle research.E-mail Carolyn Lochhead at clochhead(at)sfchronicle.com.(Distributed by Scripps Howard News Service, www.scrippsnews.com.)
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