Many buildings not earthquake-safe, experts fear

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The death toll in last week's earthquake in China could reach 150,000, largely because it hit near cities where buildings aren't quake-proof, a Colorado geologist says.Roger Bilham, who specializes in global earthquake habits, has been predicting that sooner or later there is going to be a direct hit on a major city that will kill 1 million human beings."This wasn't quite a direct hit -- it was about 100 kilometers away" from a population center of 8 million, he said.A similar-sized earthquake from the Himalayas in 1905 killed 20,000 people, but there are more people living in the region now, said Bilham, associate director of the University of Colorado's Cooperative Institute for Research in the Environmental Sciences.The planet is seeing the biggest building boom of all time, as the population continues to grow and, more ominously, people are leaving their tents and huts for poorly made concrete buildings, he said.People who live in bamboo and thatch structures are practically invulnerable to earthquakes, as are people living in modern skyscrapers built by competent architects and contractors, he said.But in between are the millions who live in concrete structures that aren't reinforced by good steel, or are built by people "who don't know what they are doing," Bilham said.In Third World countries, contractors tend to skimp on the mix of sand and cement, or use steel rebar that is likely to snap rather than stretch when under stress."You expect your home to be built properly, but what's missing is the link between the person who owns the house and the person who assembles the house."The big earthquake that kills 1 million people likely won't be in the United States because West Coast cities strictly enforce earthquake-safety-related building codes, he said.If such a death toll were to occur here, it likely would be a quake such as the New Madrid, Ill., quake that scared little Davy Crockett and little Abraham Lincoln in 1812, and changed the course of the Mississippi River, he said. And it would have to strike close to an Atlantic Coast big city, where building codes aren't as strict, because earthquake activity is so infrequent.More likely it will hit a huge Third World city, sparing those living in the best buildings and those living in hovels, but killing hundreds of thousands who live in poorly built concrete structures.(Contact Bill Scanlon of the Rocky Mountain News at scanlon(at)rockymountainnews.com.)