Globe may be cooling on Global Warming

Global Cooling?? NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO......

I'll try to be brief. I am an expert in modeling time series data. I looked at the local station temperature data from several locations in the US. One station had uninterrupted data since the 1890's, Wichita, KS, USA which also happens to be in the heart of the wheat growing region.

http://www.well.com/user/pdeep/pages/warm07/stat02/stat02.shtml

I found no evidence of a warming or cooling trend, but plenty of evidence of cyclic variations in temperature. One of the periods of about 60 years matches pretty well with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. The input data for this model terminated on January 1, 2008.

We appear to be heading into the cool phase, which lasts about thirty years.

The question I have is why did it took a bunch of time and resources consumed by several eminent climate modeling scientists to figure out that since 1996, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation cycle has been reasonably well characterized, and probably impacts local as well as global climate.

As a former scientist, my opinion is that if the global climate models could not show cyclic variations in temperature as well as one rural local temperature time series, I suspect the validity of the models is dubious at best.

Thanks Bob. I am not a climate scientist so I probably should not venture into the area of answering if correlations, perhaps even phase shifted, have been found for the PDO and solar cycles. It's a darn good question.

As far as urban vs rural data, you might be interested in this volunteer survey of US surface stations.

http://www.surfacestations.org/

I don't know enough about the project to comment, but they claim that inly about 4% of the surface stations are relatively unbiased with repeated measures over time due to urbanization.

Sorry to toot the horn again, but I have examined other surface stations. Though I have not spent as much time modeling those data as I have with the Wichita data set, since it is quite robust with no missing points.

The essay starts here and on the right are the other surface stations examined.

http://www.well.com/user/pdeep/pages/warm07/20071019.shtml

To my eye, and as far as the models, it looks like the PDO phenomenon might influence temperature over larger areas of the US. The exception might tbe coastal areas that are altered by local currents. Though I really don't know that for sure.

Hope that helps,

Paolo

The late John Daly has prepared a great many temprature-time plots from rural and remote weather station temperature records which show little change in annual mean temperature for long periods of time. In some cases the records start before 1900.

GO: http//www.John-Daly.com., scroll down and click on "Station Temperature Data". In particular check the plot for Death Valley. Also read his article,
"What the Station Say".

PBS: Check out the temp records for Dodge City and Tombstone.

I hope more of the media follow the main article's lead.

Years ago, I came across John's site and was gobsmacked at the contrary opinions he held at that time. I recall an article there that touted using the Pacific moods and solar cycles to predict climate T and then went ahead and did it. I haven't time to find the link, (sorry) but his site is well worth a visit and the time spent finding how relevant the information there remains to this day. Consequent research led me to becoming deeply skeptical of AGW by trace gases.

Gore may be in for a rough time from investors, he is certainly catching some in blog world. What value a $3M ad campaign to support the AGW fancy now? If you have CCs, sell before they become even more worthless is my advice.
:)
Arrived here via:
http://www.icecap.us that led me to -
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That linked here.

http://www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/environment/2005_warmest.html

http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/features/altscenario/

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2007/

Reference: Very helpful, thanks!!

The latest NASA report on global cooling; http://www.spaceandscience.net/id16.html

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