What is Limbaugh's effect on Democratic race?

ShareThis

Democratic Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's crucial Pennsylvania primary victory last week came with the help of a patchwork of political support: working-class voters, seniors, white men, Catholics, women and -- maybe even the Great Satan.Rush Limbaugh may be his real name, but to millions of Democratic grassroots voters, especially on the left, the conservative icon who has been called the most influential radio broadcaster in America reigns as the political Prince of Darkness. Even more so during a 2008 presidential race in which Limbaugh has assumed a new title, "commander," as he heads a drive dubbed "Operation Chaos," a gleeful and, he argues, increasingly successful effort to wreak havoc with the Democratic primary system and its candidates, Clinton and Illinois Sen. Barack Obama.Limbaugh's effort, which began early this year, is a call to arms urging conservatives and Republican voters to re-register as Democrats -- and create chaos in that party's presidential nomination process by casting a vote. The proof that it is working, Limbaugh says, is in the unusual turnout of turncoats: An estimated 100,000 GOP voters crossed over in Tuesday's Pennsylvania primary. And he argues it's no coincidence that TV networks last week appeared reluctant to rely on exit polling and waited more than an hour before calling a solid Keystone State win for Clinton. "Operation Chaos" loyalists have been following orders to mess with exit pollers en masse -- by lying to them, Limbaugh says."The endgame is to see that neither of these candidates can win by virtue of the primaries," Limbaugh told The San Francisco Chronicle last week. "One or the other will win only when the superdelegates decide who they want. And whoever the supers choose will infuriate the loser's supporters. More chaos."Already, he notes, both Clinton and Obama have been "weakened -- which was the objective," and their negatives are both approaching 50 percent. He cheers the fact that Obama "hasn't won a primary since Feb. 22 ... and he has lost in seven of the 10 most populous states." So according to the broadcaster's ambitious schedule, "Operation Chaos" is right on track: By the time the Democratic Party convention in Denver rolls around in August, he said, both Obama and Clinton "will be so bloodied and brought down to earth that neither can win in the general." It's a plan -- political theater, blatant self-promotion or dirty tricks, take your pick -- that has some Democrats, already weary of their party's presidential demolition derby, calling for his head, particularly after he told his listeners last week (apparently tongue-in-cheek) that Denver convention riots might be a nice finish to the Democratic contest."I hate him. I think having a 'Rush Limbaugh' vote is disgusting," sighs Democratic Party activist Gloria Nieto, who heads the Silicon Valley Gay, Lesbian, Bisexual and Transgender Democratic Club. "What kind of model is that for our democracy -- that people would hear someone on the radio saying, 'Go screw with the Democrats!'" Limbaugh insists that liberals and the "drive-by media" played the crossover hand first to help McCain. "For crying out loud, the media and the Democrats essentially chose McCain as our nominee!" he argues, insisting that they played a role in urging independents to cross over in early states like Iowa and New Hampshire to vote for McCain. "This is the kind of effectiveness they used to have a monopoly on ... but no longer."Whether you call it the "mischief effect," or the "Limbaugh effect," there is independent evidence that it may well have an effect in a close contest.Joe Lenski, executive vice president of Edison Media Research -- which did exit polling in Pennsylvania, where about 2 million registered Democrats turned out to vote -- said research showed that about 100,000 voters (5 percent) said they had re-registered from Republican to Democrat. Another 4 percent who voted on the Democratic side were new voters who said they had no party registration before the primary, and an additional 4 percent said they were unaffiliated or with another party, he said.Among all new voters, the preference was for Obama, 58 to 42 percent according to the exit polls, Lenski said, though the Republicans-turned-Democrats went 50-50 for Clinton and Obama, he said. Limbaugh also cites exit polling that suggests some 100,000 Republicans-turned-Democrats cast ballots for Clinton in Ohio, along with nearly 120,000 in Texas and 38,000 in Mississippi.E-mail Carla Marinucci at cmarinucci(at)sfchronicle.com.(Distributed by Scripps Howard News Service, www.scrippsnews.com.)