Time for Bruins to start over

LOS ANGELES -- The law of college basketball percentages just caught up to UCLA.

Coach Ben Howland, who beat the odds and took his past three Bruins teams to the Final Four, may have to do it the hard way if he gets there next year -- starting over.

Howland, like most coaches, has a firm, controlling grip over virtually every aspect of his program. Except one.

One thing that he can't strategize, scheme or schedule is when his best players will leave.

"It makes it hard to plan," said Howland after hearing freshman center Kevin Love and sophomore guard Russell Westbrook formally declare their intentions to enter the NBA draft. "We hope we keep getting the kinds of players who are in that conversation. But it does make it really difficult."

Thursday brought new meaning to the term fast break. Junior forward Luc-Richard Mbah a Moute didn't appear at the UCLA news conferences, but his intention to test the pro market was also made public, making three-fifths of UCLA's starting unit already looking to bolt out the door.

Trailing on the play is junior point guard Darren Collison, who is projected as a mid- to late-first-round NBA pick and is widely expected to test the NBA waters, as well.

Throw in graduating senior Lorenzo Mata-Real, juniors Josh Shipp and Alfred Aboya, who have decisions about their futures to make, and, although unlikely, as many as seven of the Bruins top eight players could be gone next season -- including the entire starting unit.

Welcome to college basketball, where your stars are here today and gone tomorrow. It's the anti-dynasty era. If your kids are good enough to get you to the top of the NCAA food chain, they're probably too good and too hungry to stay in the amateur pond.

So UCLA finally faces the same thing that every elite program in the country faces: a probable down cycle for a year or two.

One need look no further than last year's championship game, Florida and Ohio State. The two teams cashed out, each sending multiple key underclassmen to the NBA in 2007 and failing to make the 2008 NCAA tournament.

The UCLA exodus, in whatever numbers, comes as no great surprise. None of it is a done deal, of course. None of the Bruins have yet hired agents, and all are still eligible to return to Westwood if they determine their draft status isn't what they want.

But don't dare dream, Bruins fan. If you're a betting man, consider Love and Westbrook over the fence, and Collison going, going ...

At the very least, UCLA is in the market for a new centerpiece player. He is Jrue Holiday from North Hollywood, Calif., rated by many as the best high school guard in the nation.

If Holiday turns out to be the next coming of Derek Rose (Memphis' freshman point guard who also declared for the draft this week), the Bruins might regroup quickly. If not, well, just how far UCLA slips is anyone's guess.

"It just depends who's coming back, and who's coming in," said Westbrook, who thinks he and his Bruin contemporaries at least are leaving the program in good shape. "I think we did a lot, we gave (UCLA) a big boost. The coaches have done a great job here."

That's a fact. And for a guy who may be watching his team vaporize before his eyes Thursday, you had to give Howland credit. He wasn't in a corner crying. He was standing up for his players, smiling with them, and applauding their decisions.

He called Love's one year "special," and said he was "100 percent behind him."

He said he had never had a player improve as much as Westbrook in one year, and said his decision to gauge his NBA value was "really smart."

Still, this is the first time he has had to deal with the bottom falling out. In his first four years, he had only three players leave before their eligibility was up. Trevor Ariza and Jordan Farmar are currently with the Lakers, and Arron Afflalo is playing with Detroit.

Howland may have coughed up that many in one day Thursday.

On the other hand, all of the players he has lost, or will lose early, except for Ariza, helped get him to a Final Four.

So if he wasn't feeling the pain as much as you'd expect, there's a good reason.

"To lose a guy after one year is rare," said Howland, adding, "There are only a few programs in the country that have (the one-and-done) problem. It's not a bad problem to have."

No, it isn't. You're almost lucky to have it. Just don't blink or you'll miss the moment.

(Contact Gregg Patton at gpatton@PE.com.)

(Distributed by Scripps Howard News Service, www.scrippsnews.com.)