A growing sense Dems could boost majorities on Capitol Hill

WASHINGTON -- There's a reason House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is smiling despite a contentious Democratic presidential primary that seems as if it will never end.

The buzz is growing in Washington among election analysts, Democratic leaders and even some dispirited Republicans that Pelosi is poised to increase her majority in the House in the November election and Democrats are also seen as likely to add seats in the Senate.

Republican fortunes have fallen because of a cascade of retirements by GOP lawmakers and because Democrats are outmatching their rivals in both fund-raising and voter enthusiasm this year. The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan group that handicaps congressional races, predicts Democrats could pick up five to 10 seats in the House and three to six seats in the Senate.

"It's certainly a larger gain that I would have predicted on election night in 2006," said David Wasserman, the House editor of the Cook Political Report. "I would have said there was going to be some sort of Republican rebound, and the question was how large the Republican rebound was going to be."

All sides agree that the early forecasts could change -- especially if Democrats fail to unite around the party's presidential nominee after a long, bruising fight.

Still, the predictions are a far cry from what most insiders expected after Democrats swept to power by capturing 29 House seats and six Senate seats in November 2006, riding a wave of anti-President Bush and anti-Iraq-war sentiment.

Usually in the vote following a "wave" election, the party that won big will lose seats. Inevitably, some of the winning party's weaker first-term lawmakers are defeated as the losing party takes back House districts that they traditionally held easily. But the 2008 election could buck that trend.

"Democrats are going to gain seats (in the House) this fall," predicted Nathan Gonzales, political editor of the nonpartisan Rothenberg Political Report. "We just don't know how many. We don't know if it's going to be in the high-single digits or something considerably more."

Gonzales said there were several factors, but chief among them is the decision by 29 House Republicans to retire, while only six Democrats are resigning. The departures were a psychological blow -- many were committee chairs or former House leaders -- and were widely seen as a sign that top Republicans believed they were not likely to win back the majority soon. Some of the seats are in swing districts, creating new opportunities for Democrats to compete.

Republican leaders, eager to rally their troops and boost fund-raising, say the pessimism is unwarranted. House GOP leader John Boehner of Ohio said last week that he sees a far better Republican year than most are forecasting.

"I think we will gain seats this year. Period," he said.

Democrats are eyeing some of the retirees' seats -- including those of Reps. Jim Walsh and Tom Reynolds of New York, Jim Saxton and Mike Ferguson of New Jersey, Jerry Weller of Illinois and Tom Davis of Virginia -- in districts that have been tilting away from the GOP.

In a few cases, the retirements could actually help Republican chances of holding seats, such as those of Rep. Rick Renzi of Arizona, who is under federal indictment, and Rep. John Doolittle, R-Calif., who's being investigated as part of the Jack Abramoff influence-peddling scandal.

Democrats, while quietly optimistic, are trying to downplay expectations. They remember 1994, when Republicans took power after another wave election and 28 Democrats retired. But the historical trend held: Democrats, the minority party, picked up nine seats two years later.

"One of the things we have tried to point out is -- from the perspective of history -- we have to literally beat history to win any seats," said Rep. Chris Van Hollen of Maryland, who chairs the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

"Certainly the new Republican retirements have given us new opportunities. ... Instead of starting on defense and trying to defend our gains, we've been able to remain very much on offense."

(E-mail Zachary Coile at zcoile(at)sfchronicle.com.)

(Distributed by Scripps Howard News Service, www.scrippsnews.com.)