Nation not buying into defending N.L. champ Rockies

Coming off their first National League pennant, the Colorado Rockies figured they would enter the new season facing great expectations.For example, this was manager Clint Hurdle's pre-emptive strike Sunday at the Rocks' final workout before Monday's opener at Busch Stadium was rained out:"We aren't worried what other people's expectations are. We have our own expectations. They're high expectations. They're the expectations we want to meet."So ignoring great expectations and playing to their own standard would be the Rocks' 2008 story line, except for one small problem:Nationally, there are no great expectations. Virtually no one outside Colorado believes in the Rocks. Again.Check out the odds makers. At VegasInsider.com, the Rocks are given the ninth-best chance to win the NL pennant at 13-1, behind division rivals Arizona (8-1), Los Angeles (9-1) and San Diego (11-1).At Bodoglife.com, they do a little better, but not much. The Rocks' odds of winning the pennant are put at 10-1, behind the Dodgers (13-2) and Diamondbacks (7-1), among others.Bodog lists the over/under for Rockies wins at 83.5, which is lower than the number for the Diamondbacks (87.5), the Dodgers (87) and the Padres (84.5). In short, Bodog is picking the Rocks to finish fourth in the NL West, which is where everyone picked them a year ago, before they came out of nowhere to win the pennant.The national consensus appears to be that they will now return to nowhere."We look at winning percentages from previous years comparable to a percentage of the total amount of games that can be won in the season," said Bodog sports book manager Richard Gardner.I have no idea what this means but it makes me feel better about not being a gambler."We then will look at any offseason changes that will impact the win percentage and adjust accordingly," Gardner added.This I get. The Rocks did nothing during the offseason to impress the smart money. Which should be OK with them, considering the smart money wasn't impressed last year, either."Our credibility is not because people are picking us to finish first or second, it's because we went out and proved it last year," Todd Helton said.It is true that the Rocks' credibility is not based on people picking them to finish first or second, mainly because people aren't.After last year, it's safe to say most knowledgeable fans know the Rocks have a terrific lineup. The continuing national skepticism stems principally from two factors: pitching and history.For a defending league champ, the Rocks' starting rotation is not exactly awe-inspiring. In fact, only Jeff Francis is a proven winner, and even he doesn't seem to scare anybody. Francis won 17 games last season, but Bodog puts his over/under this year at 14.5."We looked at Francis' year-to-year stats and found an average," Gardner explained.After Francis comes Aaron Cook, who has never won more than nine games in a season. Then Ubaldo Jimenez and Franklin Morales, the kids who came through last year but mostly regressed this spring. Then Mark Redman, retrieved last year from the major league scrapheap.On top of all that is the Rockies' history as a baseball punch line. A surprising number of baseball fans still seem to believe Coors Field is located on the moon. For them, it's easier to see last year as an astrological aberration rather than a tipping point.In fact, collapsing after winning the pennant is more common than repeating. The Cardinals preceded the Rocks as National League champs, but finished six games under .500 last year. Still, VegasInsider.com puts them right behind Colorado at 15-1 to win this year's pennant.Although the Cards' rotation coming out of camp makes the Rocks' look good by comparison, they expect to get back $23.5 million worth of injured starters -- Chris Carpenter, Mark Mulder, Joel Pineiro and Matt Clement -- during the course of the season. The Rocks hope to get back Jason Hirsh, who has no more credibility than either of their other young starters.Whatever the odds makers or national experts think of them, the Rocks' reliance on a homegrown nucleus has not gone unnoticed by their peers.The Cards, for example, are trying to wean themselves from an addiction to free agents and trades -- to mercenaries, in other words. Under new general manager John Mozeliak, they've returned to an emphasis on growing their own talent. Their opening day is expected to feature a homegrown outfield in which center fielder Rick Ankiel's $900,000 is the highest salary. On the other hand, with all that pitching talent on the sidelines, the Cardinals still have a player payroll considerably higher than Colorado's, which may explain why they are given nearly as good a shot at the postseason in a transitional year as the Rocks are given coming off their first pennant.Turns out, those great expectations the Rocks expected really aren't so great."We're eager to prove we are for real," Troy Tulowitzki said. "We are the defending champions. We have a good team here.""Think back to what people were predicting last year," Hurdle said. "You really don't pay a lot of attention to predictions. They're mostly wrong."Once again, the Rocks are hoping this is true. Despite their unforgettable finish a year ago, not that much has changed.(Contact Dave Krieger of the Rocky Mountain News at XX(at)xxx.com.)