Forecasting the NCAA field

ShareThis

I always think this thing's going to get easier. It never does.For 23 years now, I have attempted to burrow inside the craniums of the NCAA Tournament selection committee members and predict which teams they will anoint with precious tickets to this thing called The Big Dance. I have even been in their shoes, sort of, acting as a mock committee member last year at the NCAA headquarters in Indianapolis.Doesn't matter. This is like getting your teeth pulled by your crazy uncle with no Novocain. It's painful. It has become more of a guessing game every year, even the well-conceived educated guesses often proving to be just that -- guesses. I've never managed to get more than 57 of the 65 teams correct (last year it was just 52).But I press on, secure in the knowledge that the endless spewing by so-called bracketologists on television have no more basis in fact than my own mental meanderings.The thing is, the real NCAA committee has all the results in hand when it makes its choices and unveils this year's bracket on Sunday, March 16. I have to project how bubble teams will do down the stretch and in their conference tournaments because my picks always come out just before the very first of the Division I conference tourneys begin.That, and I have to pick the conference tourney winners in far-flung, little-known, one-berth leagues that don't see a television camera all season.As wildly unpredictable as the college game has become, having two weeks of yet-to-be-played games affecting your picks is an invitation to look like a buffoon.But here we go again, with a square jaw and a stiff upper lip.Enjoy the Madness, people.FILLING OUT THE DANCE CARDWith Division I conference tournaments beginning this week -- the Big South, Ohio Valley and Horizon League kick off two weeks of conference tournament action with first-round games Tuesday, here's a conference-by-conference look at the possibilities for the 65-team field.Each of the 31 Division I conferences receives an automatic berth.Because NCAA rules require the selection committee to invite 34 at-large teams, there is one too many automatic berths. To make a 64-team field from 65 teams, there will be a play-in game between the two schools the committee judges the weakest in the field.The winner of that game -- to be played March 18 in Dayton, Ohio -- will be a No. 16 seed in the 64-team bracket and face a No. 1 seed. Here are the 65 teams:-- America East (1): Maryland Baltimore County.-- Atlantic Coast (4): Duke, North Carolina, Clemson and Miami.-- Atlantic Sun (1): Belmont.-- Atlantic 10 (3): Xavier, St. Joseph's and Massachusetts.-- Big East (7): Georgetown, Louisville, Connecticut, Notre Dame, Marquette, Pittsburgh and West Virginia-- Big Sky (1): Weber State.-- Big South (1): North Carolina Asheville.-- Big Ten (4): Purdue, Wisconsin, Indiana, and Michigan State.-- Big 12 (6): Kansas, Texas, Kansas State, Texas A&M, Baylor and Oklahoma.-- Big West (1): Cal State Fullerton.-- Colonial (1): Virginia Commonwealth.-- Conference USA (1): Memphis.-- Horizon (1): Butler.-- Ivy League (1): Cornell (clinched berth Sunday).-- Metro Atlantic (1): Siena.-- Mid-American (1): Kent State-- Mid-Eastern (1): Hampton.-- Missouri Valley (3): Drake, Illinois State and Southern Illinois.-- Mountain West (3): Brigham Young, UNLV and New Mexico.-- Northeast (1): Sacred Heart.-- Ohio Valley (1): Austin Peay.-- Pacific-10 (6): UCLA, Stanford, Washington State, Arizona, Southern California and Arizona State.-- Patriot (1): Navy.-- Southeastern (5): Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Arkansas, Mississippi State and Florida.-- Southern (1): Davidson.-- Southland (1): Stephen F. Austin.-- Southwestern Athletic (0): Alabama State projected to win SWAC tournament but lose in NCAA play-in game.-- Summit League (1): Oral Roberts.-- Sun Belt (2): South Alabama and Western Kentucky.-- West Coast (2): St. Mary's and Gonzaga-- Western Athletic (1): New Mexico State(Contact Randy Holtz of the Rocky Mountain News at www.rockymountainnews.com.)