What happens next for high-definition DVDs?

J.J. Caguin had held off on purchasing a high-definition DVD player until now. But with Blu-ray all but crowned as the next-generation DVD format last week, the 37-year-old is ready to go shopping. "Once I heard (that Blu-ray was pulling ahead), that put it back on my radar," said Caguin, an avid DVD collector in San Francisco. "I got excited about upgrading to Blu-ray."For two years, Blu-ray, backed by Sony, Pioneer, Panasonic and others, has battled HD DVD, supported by Toshiba and Microsoft, to become the preferred next-generation, high-definition DVD player and the replacement for current standard-definition DVD machines. Both offered crisper picture and sound quality that could take full advantage of the high-definition plasma and LCD televisions flooding consumer living rooms. But like Beta and VHS in the 1980s, one also was destined to become obsolete. Neither made much progress until recently. Sony's PlayStation 3, which comes with a built-in Blu-ray player, helped push consumer adoption. But the dominos really began falling in January, when Warner Bros. said it would support Blu-ray exclusively, rather than offering movies in both formats. This month, retailers such as Wal-Mart, Best Buy and Amazon also said they were siding with Blu-ray. Finally, Toshiba, the primary backer of HD DVD, conceded the fight last week. "There was a cloud of confusion, and now that cloud can lift and consumers can begin looking at this," said Sandra Benedetto, a spokeswoman for the Blu-ray Disc Association and director of product development and sales engineering for Pioneer. So will consumers be rushing out to purchase a DVD player? Not necessarily, said Paul Erickson, director of DVD and HD market research for DisplaySearch, a subsidiary of research firm NPD Group. "It's still a market that's expensive," he said. "It's not going to generate a mass of people running to the street to buy a $400 player."Blu-ray players, which have cost as much as $1,000, will continue to fall in price, Erickson said, but because it's no longer competing heavily against HD DVD, it might not drop as dramatically, or quickly. However, cheaper manufacturers, which had held out until now, could start churning out Blu-ray players and force down prices. Mass adoption probably will happen once prices fall below $200, Erickson said. Blu-ray -- and HD DVD -- differ from standard-definition DVDs because they can store much more content on a single disc. Blu-ray discs can store as much as 50 GB, five times that of standard-definition DVDs, allowing a film to be recorded in much higher quality and include more bonus features. It also eliminates certain limitations, such as having to stop the movie to return to the scene selection menu. With Blu-ray, viewers can cue the menu as the film is playing. Blu-ray players are best for consumers who use a high-definition television because it lets them take advantage of the film's better picture quality. But they also play standard DVDs. A Blu-ray model coming this year also will offer more interactive features. Known as BD Live or BD 2.0, it allows consumers to play and download high-definition games; and in movies, they can see and hear the director's comments as the film is playing. Players with BD Live can connect to the Internet and, because it has at least 1 GB of storage, can download additional features for a particular film, such as subtitles in different languages. Sony's PlayStation 3 can be upgraded to BD Live, and electronics-makers such as Panasonic said they plan to introduce BD Live players this year. The challenge isn't over for Blu-ray. Even as Blu-ray and HD DVD waged war, other alternatives have been introduced: Consumers can order high-definition movies from cable and satellite operators. They can record high-def films on digital video recorders, such as TiVo. They can download high-def films through the Web from Apple's iTunes, though the picture quality is slightly lower. But if the popularity of DVDs is any indication, consumers for now still feel partial to owning and collecting films. Some $24 billion was spent on home videos last year, according to Adams Media Research. Just about 1 percent came from films downloaded from the Internet. "The humans, they like packages," said Tom Adams, president and senior analyst for Adams Media Research. "It's in our DNA. There's less in the DNA of the next generation, but it's still in the DNA, to feel like you own something if you can touch it. In our view, that ensures that Blu-ray discs have a future."E-mail Ellen Lee at elee(at)sfchronicle.com. (Distributed by Scripps Howard News Service, www.scrippsnews.com.)