College polls poor indicator of combine talent

ShareThis

It is the distance between football Saturdays and the Sundays that follow for some, the question of production versus potential.The question about whether quality college players will be quality pros.About whether the quality of a college football program can -- or should -- be measured by how many playing professionals it exports.These are just some of what those who pursue future pro football players wrestle with as they pile up mileage trying to find them.The NFL's scouting combine opened Wednesday with the first of the 334 players on the original invitation list having arrived, with the rest to follow through the weekend. And while much of what the college football elite is looking for in a player is the same as what the NFL wants, who gets invited to the combine doesn't always reflect on who won the most games in a college football season.If it did, Southern Cal would have played Virginia Tech in the Bowl Championship Series title game this time around.The Trojans, who led the way at the Senior Bowl last month with nine players invited to the all-star game in Mobile, Ala., also led the way to Indy with 12 players having been invited.The Hokies were just behind with 11 players invited to the combine.While some, after USC's charge down the stretch and dismantling of Illinois in the Rose Bowl, have said it was clear the Trojans may have been the best team in college football in January, they still finished No. 3 in the final AP poll and No. 2 in the final coaches' poll (done by USA Today).The Hokies were No. 9 in both polls at season's end.But those schools are the only two here this week with more than eight players invited. LSU, the national champion after its win against Ohio State in the BCS title game, had eight players invited.Michigan (No. 18 in AP, No. 19 in USA Today), Oklahoma (No. 8 in both), Texas (No. 10 in both) and California (unranked) all were next with seven players each invited.The Buckeyes? Three invitees.There are plenty of theories annually for all of this.Could mean those teams were senior heavy with a smattering of juniors mixed in who were good enough to declare for the draft.Could mean those teams had players eligible for the draft at positions where more players were invited this year. For example, 31 players whose college position was designated as offensive tackle were invited this year, while only eight whose college position was designated as guard got the call.Some of those tackles may become NFL guards, but it does show the NFL wants to look at the best prospects overall and isn't much concerned about whether the invitations are spread nicely across the board.Asked how much stock he puts in measuring the quality of his program by how many players the NFL wants each year, Colorado coach Dan Hawkins said via text: "They're targeting the best physical prospects with the most likelihood of making it. I think it can be good indicator of how a program matches up physically, but as we all know, not all the guys who make it have just physical attributes."How much stock I'd put into it as an overall measuring stick would be very little. Do the math. Counting all divisions, there are probably close to 150 or 175 schools sending those 350 or 400 to the combine, so it works to an average of two per school, certainly no more than three. And that doesn't figure in fluctuations dependent on what position may be especially deep in a particular year. For example, you may have no senior defensive linemen in a year they decide to take more than usual."It's why Tom Brady won't have his number retired in Ann Arbor for what he did at Michigan, but is already, at 30, on a Hall of Fame track in his NFL career with three Super Bowl wins and having played in a fourth.Why the list of Heisman Trophy winners doesn't always mesh with anyone's NFL memories.Why the question about who will make it out of the group of hopeful young men who roam the halls in the RCA Dome each year will always be an intriguing one.TWO FOR ONEThere are only two players from one-win teams last season who were invited to the scouting combine.School, PlayerMinnesota (1-11), Safety Dominique BarberIdaho (1-11), Linebacker David Vobora(Contact Jeff Legwold at legwoldj@RockyMountainNews.com.)(Jeff Legwold writes for the Rocky Mountain News at www.rockymountainnews.com.)