NFL coaching carousel's dizzying effects

It has become an annual rite of summer.

To let my fingers do the walking, make the calls, to simply quiz those who will eventually hire the new head coaches.

To see who will be in when some are inevitably out.

And when the informal poll was done this past summer, before any games had been played, the most popular picks were:

Gregg Williams.

Dom Capers.

Jim Fassel.

Jim Caldwell.

Well, four jobs have been filled on NFL sidelines and it was no, no, no and no on that final four.

Instead, it is Mike Smith, who will coach the Falcons; Jim Zorn, who will coach the Redskins; John Harbaugh, who will coach the Ravens; and Tony Sparano, who will coach the Dolphins.

And while the Giants ending up with the Lombardi Trophy was indeed an upset to jot down on the shortlist of upsets, it could be argued even defeating a previously undefeated team wasn't as big a jolt to the flow of what was expected than the list of Smith, Zorn, Harbaugh and Sparano.

Zorn, after getting the team colors wrong in his first public appearance for the team that had just hired him, was the most surprised of all, even admitting he was stunned Redskins owner Dan Snyder had actually offered him the job.

After all, those same Redskins had just hired Zorn on Jan. 26 to be the team's offensive coordinator.

Zorn's hiring also meant the guy who said he would be a quality addition to the staff in the first place -- Fassel -- was left holding nothing but questions to go with a few estimates from movers after most in the league believed he was closing in on the Redskins job.

Fassel has now gone through five hiring cycles without returning to a head-coaching job. Most think that, this time, being a former Super Bowl coach who went to the playoffs three times in seven seasons with the Giants wasn't enough to conquer what the Redskins believed would be negative fan reaction.

And usually when franchises go hunting for head coaches, that splash with the fans is what drives the machine: Reel in a big name, then staff the ticket office with a few extra folks and watch the orders pour in as the new day arrives.

Owners like that. It makes them appear proactive, shows them to be closers, to be the get-it-done guys, to be men with plans and all that.

None of the four franchises that changed its head coach got much in the splash index this year with its pick. And whether that's good, bad or in the indifference of status quo won't be known until the four have far more resume than they have at this point.

Atlanta's Arthur Blank probably tried the hardest at the bold-type flirting with Southern California coach Pete Carroll. Carroll was the splash guy this time around, having also flirted with the Redskins.

Caldwell, who also has been on the shortlist the past couple of seasons, did indeed get a head-coaching job. But he must wait until Colts coach Tony Dungy retires before he drops the "assistant" part of his assistant head coach title.

The Dolphins scored on the splash meter by luring Bill Parcells out of the TV studio -- a semiannual occurrence, it seems, for Parcells -- to run their football operations. And most of those who consider themselves NFL head coaches-in-waiting then decided working with Parcells looking over your shoulder wasn't as much fun as actually coaching your own team would be.

So the Dolphins got a Parcells guy in Sparano, Sparano already being well versed in the idea of working in Parcells' swirl and all.

Williams, the league's highest-paid assistant coach last season at more than $2.5 million, did interview with Snyder for what seemed to be the better part of a month but was eventually fired by the team.

So he ended up in Jacksonville, taking Smith's old job, where Williams will now wait for another chance.

Capers, who has been a head coach in Houston and Carolina, has told friends he intends to sit out the season and see what happens after turning down a job to join Wade Phillips' staff in Dallas.

But sift through all of what was, and the guys who really made out were two who didn't get head coaching jobs -- Cowboys offensive coordinator Jason Garrett and Giants defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, both of whom have been coordinators for only one season.

Garrett's offense rang up the points in Dallas, and Spagnuolo's defense smacked around Tom Brady and pushed the Giants to a Super Bowl win.

So Garrett got about $3 million for the upcoming season -- making him the highest-paid assistant coach in the league and better paid than several head coaches -- to stay in Dallas, while Spagnuolo got a $2 million- a-year deal to stay with New York.

Two guys now comfortably biding their time, knowing full well the carousel will spin again.

(Contact Jeff Legwold at legwoldj@RockyMountainNews.com.)

(Jeff Legwold writes for the Rocky Mountain News at www.rockymountainnews.com.)