White men may be key to Democratic election outcome

Every four years, a voter bloc is identified that could sway the tide in U.S. presidential elections: soccer moms, Latino grandmothers, college-educated African Americans.This year, the pundits are predicting that a new demographic will finally get a chance to lead their candidate to the corridors of power.White dudes, your time has come."If you look at the demographics state by state, you can see that, right now, Obama's being kept alive by white guys," said Richard Parker, a Harvard lecturer and co-founder of Mother Jones magazine. "It's the one group which is not voting identity politics because they don't have a candidate."In a choice between the first female or black presidential nominee, few would have predicted that white men would be the demographic bloc who hold the balance of power.And as a 61-year-old, white, heterosexual, married man, Parker joked that he is enjoying his moment in the sun."Now we're getting a little celebrity for a change," he said.But in the Democratic primaries, the impact of white male voters appears to be no laughing matter.As Hillary Clinton rallies women to her side and Barack Obama leads a tide of youth and black voters to the polls, Caucasian men could end up choosing their party's presidential candidate."As we examine shifting alliances and lay bets on the general election, my swing vote is the Democrat/Independent white male," Catherine Crier wrote on the Huffington Post. "Where will the white men go in November?"Naming white men as a surprise force in a political endeavor may sound ridiculous to those who suspect they already enjoy a large degree of influence. But exit polls show white men broke as a bloc for Obama, helping him beat Clinton in several states and narrowing the gap in others.Obama gained on Clinton with white men on Super Tuesday, with each candidate having the support of roughly half of that demographic.The impact of white guys is not being ignored.On Meet the Press last week, Byron York of the National Review suggested that Clinton will have to do something to quash, or at least counter, the dude vote."The question is, can Hillary Clinton suppress that, you know, white vote for Obama," he said.This comment was met with a gleefully satirical response on Wednesday night from Stephen Colbert on The Colbert Report."Yes, white voter suppression," he said. "It is an old, old and ugly political trick."Fred Goodwin, a professor of American history at Carleton University, believes the white male vote will eventually help propel Obama to victory."What you've got to do is solicit support outside the traditional democratic core," he said. "And he may be more well-suited to that than Senator Clinton."Although Goodwin cautions that exit polls must be read with some skepticism, he said the Democratic primaries are being fought along gender and racial lines."The black vote was obviously very strongly for Mr. Obama. The Latino vote was very solidly for Ms. Clinton. So someone's got to tip the balance."If Clinton becomes the Democratic candidate in a general election, the impact of male voters could have an even more profound affect on her chances of winning, Goodman said."There are some men who for good and bad reasons just don't like her," he said. "And that's not going to bode well when she's going up against a Republican."Reach Siri Agrell at sagrell(at)globeandmail.com. For more stories visit scrippsnews.com