Thompson looks to South Carolina for a good showing

NORTH CHARLESTON, S.C. -- Fred Thompson likes to fire up the crowds at his campaign stops across South Carolina by declaring that he's "drawing a line in the sand" in their home state.The quip is almost always met with whoops and hollers and thunderous applause.Thompson's words may elicit a rowdy ovation from supporters, but they're also a tacit admission of what others have been saying about his struggling presidential campaign: To stay in the race, he has to come out on top in South Carolina's GOP primary on Saturday."I've got to do very well here," Thompson said. "I don't think that's any secret. And I'm just acknowledging the obvious."Some political strategists argue Thompson not only has to do well in South Carolina, he has to win. Anything less than a first-place finish would be a sign that his candidacy is doomed, they say, and would probably force him to drop out of the race.Thompson, however, refuses to play the what-if game. Asked if he could place second or third in South Carolina and remain in the race, he simply repeated that he must do well."We'll decide what that is on election night," he said in an interview with the Knoxville News Sentinel after a town-hall rally just outside of Charleston.It wasn't supposed to be like this.When Thompson jumped into the race last September, he was welcomed with open arms by many conservatives dissatisfied with the Republican field. Many compared the former U.S. senator from Tennessee to Ronald Reagan because of his ability to charm an audience and his ease in front of a camera.But enthusiasm for his candidacy began to fade after he came across as indifferent and ill-prepared at some early campaign events. A third-place finish in Iowa and an even worse showing in New Hampshire left him looking south for his first victory and the chance to salvage his campaign."With the media, the story is always the buildup and then the next story is the takedown," said Thompson, seated behind a table inside his campaign bus. "That's part of the natural process."Essentially, everybody has their day in the sun and their day in the wilderness in this campaign. A lot of guys have been considered inevitable winners -- like Rudy (Giuliani) and Mitt (Romney) were going to take the first two states. Of course, it didn't work that way for them. (John) McCain was the front-runner, then McCain was dead, now McCain is back."So everybody has their turn both up and down. In politics, it has a lot to do with timing. The trick is to be up at the right time."Thompson's main sales pitch to Republican voters has been that he is the "clear conservative choice" in the race. But the field is crowded with other Republicans who also claim conservative credentials, so Thompson has been forced to try to distinguish himself from the pack.He set out across South Carolina on an 11-day bus tour that has taken him to metropolitan areas like Columbia and Charleston and out-of-the-way burgs like Moncks Corner. He also has sharpened his attacks on his opponents, particularly former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, who, like Thompson, is a Southerner who appeals to evangelical voters, an important voting bloc in South Carolina."We share the same values," Thompson said of evangelicals. "But you never know how the vote is going to break down. There are seldom blocs anymore that are voting solid."The issue that he hears about most on the campaign trail is illegal immigration. But voters also are concerned about a variety of other issues, such as the war in Iraq, radical Islam, health care, the nuclear threat posed by Iran and the political turmoil in Pakistan, he said.Wherever he goes, his message is the same -- that he is the only candidate who has fought consistently for the issues that matter to conservatives, things such as national security, tax cuts, balanced budgets and gun owners' rights."I've been fighting for these things for a long time," Thompson said. Other Republican candidates "have had to adapt their positions, bring them up to date, shall we say. Where they have been in times past, I have not."Judging from the size and enthusiasm of the crowds that show up at his events, Thompson is convinced that his message is getting through."On the ground, it feels awfully good," he said.Some strategists say the problems he has faced can be traced in large measure to his unconventional campaign -- not getting into the race until September, announcing his candidacy on "The Tonight Show with Jay Leno," essentially skipping the important primary in New Hampshire.If he could do things differently, would he?"Man, I would do things differently in every aspect of my life in some respects," Thompson said. "Otherwise, you say that you have been perfect. I'm a long way from perfect. So as you go along, you look back and you think you would do something here, something there (differently). But fundamentally, I'm not sure I'd do things differently."(Contact Michael Collins at collinsm(at)shns.com.)