Has Vegas soured on Pats? Other NFL thoughts

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Bouncing around like a loose football... -- The New England Patriots aren't as good as most people think they are. Or at least as most people that wager on pro football apparently think they are. Perhaps overawed by the Patriots awesome start to the season, when they won their first eight games by 17 or more points and were 8-0 vs. the Las Vegas point spread, bettors have been pouring money in on the Pats, causing New England to be favored by what have proven to be excessively high margins. Although the Patriots have continued to be winners on the scoreboard, they have been losers of late in Vegas, dropping their last four games against the spread, and seven of nine since midseason. The Jaguars were 13-1/2-point underdogs and covered by losing only 31-20. The Giants, Dolphins, Jets, Ravens, Eagles, and Colts -- who, despite being undefeated at the time, were 51/2-point underdogs at home in Indianapolis against New England -- all have covered the spread against the Pats. The Chargers, who, as 9-1/2-point underdogs, beat the Colts outright Sunday in Indianapolis, 28-24, while playing backups at both quarterback and running back in the second half, are getting 14-1/2 points against the Pats. That's partly because San Diego has significant injury issues. Quarterback Philip Rivers, star running back LaDainian Tomlinson, and standout tight end Antonio Gates all are hurting. Another factor in the large spread is that the Patriots clobbered the Chargers in their home opener in Foxboro in September, 38-14.-- This is a very different San Diego team than the one that came to New England the second week of the season. Those Chargers still were adjusting to not only a new coach, in Norv Turner, but also new coordinators on both sides of the ball. Cam Cameron, San Diego's offensive coordinator when the Chargers went 14-2 under Marty Schottenheimer in 2006, but lost in the conference semifinals to the Patriots, left to become head coach of the Dolphins. He's since been fired, after going 1-15 this season. To replace him, the Chargers promoted running backs coach Clarence Shelmon, who had been instrumental in the development of Tomlinson. San Diego also lost its defensive coordinator from a year ago, Wade Phillips, who was named head coach of the NFC East champion Dallas Cowboys. He was replaced by Ted Cottrell, who had been defensive coordinator for the Bills, Jets, and, most recently, the Vikings. After a slow start in which they lost three of their first four games, and five of 10, the Chargers now have won eight in a row.Still, it's hard not to think that the Pats caught a break when San Diego upset the Colts. Given the weakness of New England's defense down the stretch, the thought of facing Peyton Manning, rather than Rivers, was disturbing. -- Why pro football isn't like real life... Suppose you were offered three choices of what you'd like to do in mid-winter: -- Vacation in Mexico with Jessica Simpson? -- Win a trip to Hawaii with a bunch of your buddies? -- Visit Green Bay, Wis.? A no-brainer, right? Well, call 'em crazy, but the New York football Giants are thrilled to be going to Lambeau Field for the NFC Championship Game, having upset the Cowboys in Dallas, 21-17. The Giants clinched the victory with an end-zone interception of Cowboys' QB Tony Romo, who spent the bye week south of the border with Simpson, his sexy singer girlfriend, and will be heading to Hawaii next month for the Pro Bowl with 11 of his teammates. The Giants had just one player selected for the Pro Bowl -- defensive lineman Osi Umenyiora. That perceived slight regarding their talent was motivating factor for the Giants, who twice lost the Dallas during the regular season. The Giants said the Cowboys were All-Pros, while they were just "regular Joes." -- You've got to believe veteran Green Bay QB Brett Favre is thrilled that the Giants beat the Cowboys. The future Hall of Famer is 0-9, lifetime, in Texas Stadium. Now he and the Packers get to play the NFC Championship Game at home, on the "frozen tundra" of legendary Lambeau Field.-- If you'd told Jacksonville coach Jack Del Rio last Saturday night that his Jaguars would hold Randy Moss to just one reception, for 14 yards; keep Wes Welker from gaining more than nine yards on any of his nine receptions (for a total of only 54 yards); and that his offense would put together scoring drives of 80, 95, and 86 yards -- you think he'd figure he was going to win the game?-- On paper, you have to like Tom Brady over Philip Rivers, Bill Belichick over Norv Turner, and, in the NFC Championship Game, Brett Favre over Eli Manning, although Giants coach Tom Coughlin gets the nod over Green Bay's Mike McCarthy. This is where, however, a reminder is issued that the games are played on the field, not on paper. If the Chargers, after upsetting the Colts in Indianapolis, can come to New England and become the first team this season to defeat the Patriots, they'll certainly deserve to go to the Super Bowl.(Contact Jim Donaldson at jdonalds@projo.com.)(Distributed by Scripps Howard News Service, www.scrippsnews.com.)