University of Arizona, Army researchers team up

TUCSON, Ariz. -- As Pentagon officials grapple with ways to counter an increasingly unpredictable and resilient enemy, Arizona researchers are developing technology that could help predict how insurgents plan to attack U.S. troops.Developed jointly by researchers at the University of Arizona and Fort Huachuca, a U.S. Army military installation in Arizona, the program is designed to sift through millions of reports on intelligence and insurgents' past activities to predict future actions.Those predictions then can be used by commanders in the field to either eliminate threats or avoid them entirely.With the recent infusion of $2.4 million in federal funding, leaders of the program said they're ready to begin the project's next phase and hope to have a workable test model ready by spring 2009.Determining where enemies are located and what they're doing has been an age-old challenge for military leaders, said retired Air Force Maj. Gen. Donald Shepperd, who spoke during the program's unveiling on Thursday.Given how enemies such as insurgents behave in non- traditional ways, the U.S. military's current intelligence arsenal has difficulty understanding how these groups operate and how to destroy them, Shepperd said."All the traditional strengths of our military became marginalized" by insurgents and their tactics, he said.While there is an abundance of intelligence coming in daily from soldiers and other surveillance resources, it's practically impossible for troops to analyze it and account for future activities, said Brian C. Ten Eyck, an associate director of research at the University of Arizona's Electrical and Computer Engineering Department.That's where the program, known as the Asymmetric Threat Response and Analysis Project, comes in, said Ten Eyck, who serves as project manager for the model.Using data analysis, the program examines intelligence reports to identify patterns and similarities.The information then is brought to the attention of analysts, who can help determine how the intelligence fits together and predict future actions by the enemy.Using enormous computing power to analyze intelligence might allow for overlooked or seemingly unrelated information to connect in a meaningful way, said Jason Denno, director of Fort Huachuca's battle laboratory."That one piece of information might be the glue that holds the puzzle together," he said.Once analysts recognize a pattern, they can pass the information on to commanders, who can plan ways to avoid scenarios that put friendly forces in harm's way, said Jerzy Rozenblit, the lead Arizona researcher on the project and head of the computer engineering department."If we can predict the intent of our adversaries, perhaps we could be proactive in preventing adverse action," he said.For example, intelligence analysts may get reports on insurgent activity that may not have a discernible pattern.Once the information is sorted and analyzed by the program, it could reveal that the insurgents are planning to attack U.S. troops with a roadside bomb, Rozenblit said.Using that information, commanders could target the insurgents or go after their network.The $2.4 million for the project came from an earmark by U.S. Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, D-Ariz., who said investing in military intelligence must become a top priority.Given the evolving nature of the battlefield - where enemies are elusive and less likely to fight in mass formations - it's important that future military operations have tools such as the one being developed locally, Giffords said."It's really important to invest in more intelligence because it will ultimately be more effective" at eliminating threats such as insurgents, she said.University of Arizona President Robert Shelton said the program was proof that the relationship between the university and the fort, located roughly 75 miles southeast of Tucson, is an effective one."This is an example of what a public research university should be doing," he said, "bringing our resources to bear on an important issue."E-mail Aaron Mackey at amackey(at)azstarnet.com.(Distributed by Scripps Howard News Service, www.scrippsnews.com.)