Change-vs.-experience dynamic could continue to hurt Clinton

WASHINGTON -- New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton built her candidacy around the idea that her experience in her husband's two-term presidency made her the best candidate to beat the Republican nominee in November and hit the ground running when she stepped into the Oval Office.

But her third-place finish in the Iowa caucus showed the flaw in that strategy: If what voters crave most is change, they might choose a fresher face, like Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, over someone they associate with the politics of the 1990s.

"It's clear that in the experience-versus-change theme war, she is on the wrong side right now," said Bruce Cain, director of the University of California's Washington Center. "That could change in a couple months as circumstances shift, but right now among Democrats and independents, people want to turn the page."

Obama's victory in Thursday's Iowa Democratic caucuses also shattered another pillar of Clinton's campaign: the widely held view that she was the party's inevitable choice for president.

The visuals from election night in Iowa were one clue about the differences between the themes of the leading Democrats.

Obama gave his victory speech surrounded by campaign workers, including many young volunteers. Clinton spoke while flanked by a who's who of figures from the last Democratic White House -- her husband, former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright, former NATO Supreme Allied Commander Wesley Clark and former Democratic National Committee Chairman Terry McAuliffe.

Bill Carrick, a Democratic strategist who has advised President Bill Clinton's past campaigns but is unaffiliated in this year's race, said Hillary Clinton has been trapped by her campaign's theme. While her experience gives her credibility, it also makes her appear to be a creature of the past.

"Ironically, the former president is very popular, and a lot of Democrats look back nostalgically on the 1990s as a great time in this country," Carrick said. "But that is overwhelmed by the intervening two terms of George W. Bush, and there's a strong feeling that we need to, as Obama puts it, turn the page. For a lot of people, that means turning the page from Bush, but also turning the page from the past and toward someone who is fresh and has a fresh approach."

The entrance polls in Iowa found that 52 percent of Democratic caucusgoers said a candidate's ability to bring change was the most important factor in their decision -- and more than half of those voters backed Obama. Only 20 percent said experience was most important.

As the contest now turns to New Hampshire, which holds its first-in-the-nation primary on Tuesday, this change-versus-experience dynamic could continue to hurt Clinton.

University of New Hampshire political scientist Dante Scala said the makeup of New Hampshire's electorate could play to Obama's strengths: About 45 percent of the state's voters are independents, and they are expected to vote overwhelmingly in the Democratic primary.

"She has been doing better among the core Democratic voters here in New Hampshire than Obama, especially working-class and middle-class Democrats," Scala said. "The danger for Clinton is that independents are already trending toward Obama. ... Given the fact that Obama is the new thing in American politics, the danger is that her vote will be swamped in a high-turnout environment."

On Thursday, New Hampshire Secretary of State Bill Gardner predicted a record turnout of 500,000 voters, and the weather on Tuesday is expected to be unusually sunny and warm.

The Clinton campaign recognized weeks ago that Obama's message of change was catching on in Iowa. Clinton herself sought to blunt his advantage by casting herself as having the experience to bring about change. She sought to blend the two themes with slogans like "ready for change, ready to lead" and "the strength and experience to make change happen."

Bill Whalen, a research fellow at Stanford University's Hoover Institution, called the message schizophrenic and said it is confusing voters about whether she's pushing for change or a return to the Clinton years.

"You have this dichotomy," Whalen said. "You can't be the agent of change and the most experienced candidate in the field. It didn't work, and it backfired in Iowa."

(E-mail Zachary Coile at zcoile(at)sfchronicle.com.)

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