Ohio State has upper hand on LSU

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Now that Michigan has put to rest the theory that the Southeastern Conference has a speed advantage over the Big 10, LSU would be well advised not to wake it up again.If there were any merit to the SEC's much ballyhooed superior speed, why hasn't it translated into more victories over Big 10 opponents? Since 2002, the SEC is 7-9 versus the Big 10 in bowl games.In a 41-35 Capital One Bowl victory over Florida this year, Michigan outgained the Gators, 524-399. If they hadn't turned the ball over four times, the Wolverines, 10 1/2-point underdogs, would have won going away.LSU coach Les Miles has probably shared with his players a word to the wise: Don't talk smack... It's prone to backfire, like it did on the Gators, and like it did the previous New Year's Day after Tennessee quarterback Erik Ainge sounded off about how much faster the Vols were than Penn State. The Nittany Lions defeated the Vols, 20-10, in the Outback Bowl.It's not like Ohio State needs any more fire in the belly. The Buckeyes must have a burning desire for redemption, after their embarrassing 41-14 loss to Florida in last year's BCS title game... Not to mention the motivation of a second national title in five years.Maybe too much can be made of Michigan's victory, just as too much can be made of Florida's win last year. Yet both are causing The Unbalanced Line to have second thoughts about picking LSU to win the national crown.In fact, the Line today is officially retracting that preseason pick and is now predicting an Ohio State victory in New Orleans. Here's a dozen reasons why:-- Ohio State has the No. 1 defense in the country, yielding an average of just 225 yards and 10.7 points per game, compared to LSU's 284 and 19.6. And, forgive the clichi, but defense does win championships.-- Anchored by 2007 Butkus award-winner James Laurinaitis, the Buckeyes' linebacking crew is arguably the best in the nation.-- LSU likes to pound the ball on the ground with fullback Jacob Hester and its trio of tailbacks, Keiland Williams, Trindon Holliday and Charles Scott. But against a Buckeye defense that yields just 77.1 rushing yards per game, the Tigers will likely fall well short of their 218.9 RYPG. The Tigers' defense yields an average of 103.1 RYPG.-- Ohio State ranks No. 1 against the pass, giving up an average of 148 YPG compared to LSU's 181. -- The Bucks also have the edge over LSU in sacks per game (3.5 to 2.4) and tackles for loss (8.3 per game to LSU's 6).-- Buckeye signal-caller Todd Boeckman has the 12th best pass-efficiency rating in the country; LSU's Matt Flynn ranks 75th. Boeckman has completed 64.5 percent of his passes for 2,171 yards compared to Flynn's 55.1 percent and 2,233 yards. Boeckman has thrown 23 touchdown passes and 12 interceptions; Flynn, 17 and 10.-- Ohio State's Chris Wells is the best of both team's running backs. He's rushed for 1,463 yards (5.8 per carry) and 14 TDs. LSU's leading rusher, Hester, has gained 1,017 yards on 5.0 per carry and scored 11 rushing touchdowns.-- LSU could easily be 7-6. The Tigers lost two games in triple overtime, and had very close calls against Florida, Auburn, Alabama and Tennessee. The Tigers trailed all four in the fourth quarter, and eked out victories over Florida and Auburn in the final seconds.-- Ohio State lost a single game, 28-21, to Illinois. Other than that, the Buckeyes never trailed in the fourth quarter.-- Ah yes, and then there's the coaching factor. In his seven years at Ohio State, Jim Tressel has compiled a record of 73-15, won a national championship and has now reached the BCS title game for a third time. This, after winning four national championships with Youngstown State in Division I-AA.-- Miles is 33-6 at LSU, which is the best three-year coaching record in LSU history. But this is his first national championship game appearance, and the pressure could get the better of him. Unlike Tressel, he hasn't been there and done that.-- Ohio State is seventh best in the country in yards penalized per game, averaging 40.9 on 5.4 penalties, compared to LSU's 8.7 penalties and 64.9 yards per game average, good for a ranking of 104.As for the wild card, turnovers, LSU would appear to have the upper hand with a turnover margin of plus 1.38 to Ohio State's minus .08. But you can't bank on turnovers for a victory. The Unbalanced Line's call: Ohio State 23, LSU 20... in overtime.(Distributed by Scripps Howard News Service, www.scrippsnews.com.)