California Republicans shun independents

SACRAMENTO, Calif. -- If you're a California independent voter, you have three choices on Feb. 5: Vote in the Democratic presidential primary, a third-party primary or stay home.

The Republican Party doesn't want your vote, at least not until November's general election.

The party only accepts votes from registered Republicans. It's a long-standing policy designed to ensure that the GOP presidential pick is made by committed Republicans.

But the rule could take on added significance this year in the ultra-competitive Republican race that could still be up for grabs by the time Californians vote.

For instance, the policy could hurt Rudolph Giuliani and John McCain, both of whom appeal more to independents than other candidates, said Mark DiCamillo, director of California's Field Poll.

And come November, the entire party could be hurt by the rule, he said, because it might turn off independent voters -- the fastest-growing portion of California's electorate.

"When you do vote for someone in the primary ... you're much more likely to vote for the candidate again," DiCamillo said. By allowing independents to vote in a primary, "you kind of build some brand loyalty, some ties, with voters."

Some GOP officials challenged the rule, but party leaders endorsed the policy in a tight vote last summer.

"We want to make sure that the Republican Party nominee is representative of Republicans," said Jon Fleischman, a state GOP regional vice chairman who led the defense of the rule. "If you allow crossover voting, what you're really doing is creating mischief."

By that, he means non-Republicans trying to sabotage the vote by voting for weak candidates.

Democratic Party leaders have no such fear, or at least aren't admitting it.

"We are keenly aware that a large majority of the decline-to-state voters have Democratic tendencies," said Democratic Party spokesman Roger Salazar. "For us, (allowing them to vote is) a party-building exercise as much as anything else."

Of the third parties, only the American Independent Party is allowing independents, also known as "decline to state" voters, to vote in a primary, according to the Secretary of State's Office.

In 1998 and 2000, California held "blanket" primaries, in which voters could pick any candidate regardless of affiliation. But the U.S. Supreme Court later ruled that the state's system was unconstitutional.

The percentage of California voters registering as "decline to state" has more than doubled since the 1992 presidential election, growing from 9.5 percent to 19.3 percent as of Dec. 7.

At the same time, the two major parties have lost ground. Democratic registration has dropped from 48.5 percent to 42.7 percent and Republican registration has fallen from 38.9 percent to 33.6 percent.

"People are really tired of partisan politics -- that's why the nonpartisan population has grown," DiCamillo said.

In the Republican race, Giuliani has the most support from California moderates. A recent Field Poll showed him capturing 25 percent of voters who consider themselves "moderately conservative," "moderate" or "liberal," followed by 15 percent for McCain.

But Republican political analyst Tony Quinn said it's hard to tell how much, if at all, either candidate will be hurt by the exclusion of decline-to-state voters from the primary.

For one thing, independent voters are not the type to vote in a primary, he said.

"These are people who don't know the parties, don't care about the parties ... or for ideological reasons have rejected both of the parties," he said.

Salazar of the Democratic Party is right: Decline-to-state voters are likely to prefer the Democratic primary. Forty-three percent of independents lean Democratic, compared with 30 percent who prefer the Republican Party, according to the Public Policy Institute of California.

Not all are moderates. Indeed, 31 percent of the state's independents consider themselves liberal and 30 percent say they are conservative, according to the institute.

(The reporter can be reached at eschultz(at)fresnobee.com.)

(Distributed by Scripps Howard News Service, www.scrippsnews.com.)