ShareThisIt probably won't be long before Pac-10 basketball coaches claim 11 Pac-10 teams deserve NCAA Tournament berths.The Pac-10 thinks it has the best conference this season, and with five teams in this week's Associated Press Top 25, the most of any conference, maybe it's right. Typically, coaches oversell their conference, claiming an absurd number of conference teams should make the Tournament. This season it's been suggested the Pac-10 should get seven NCAA berths. That's not likely, but as conference play begins this week, it's safe to say a pretty good team is going to finish seventh.The non-conference schedule has more or less confirmed what we thought we knew before we started. It seems impossible for anyone to go 18-0 in conference play this year, so how many victories will it take to win it?"I would say 14, maybe 13. It'll go down to the last weekend again," said UCLA coach Ben Howland, whose team won the regular-season title with 15 wins last year and 14 the year before.Fifth-ranked UCLA and No. 4 Washington State (the Cougars' highest ranking ever) seem to be a cut above everybody else, so put them in Group A. It is still weird to see Washington State's name up there with North Carolina, Memphis, Kansas and Duke. When the Cougars come out for pre-game warmups, they look nothing like a Top 25 team, but somehow they make their opponents play poorly."I saw their game against Gonzaga," Stanford guard Anthony Goods said of the Cougars' 51-47 victory Dec. 5, "and that was the best team defense I've seen all year. They just rotate so well. And they never turn the ball over."Group B is the quartet of USC, Oregon, Arizona and Stanford, any one of which could contend for the title and each of which will be deeply disappointed if it does not make it to the NCAA Tournament. There is a temptation to move USC to group A, but the young Trojans must prove they can do it in conference play.Group C consists of Cal, Arizona State and Washington, a trio that probably does not deserve to be rated so low, and at least one is apt to break into the top six and earn an NCAA berth.Group D is Oregon State, which stands alone as the one team that does not figure to be a factor in the Pac-10 race.Five freshmen have shown they will probably have an impact on the conference race. We already knew about UCLA center Kevin Love and USC guard O.J. Mayo, and they seem to be everything that was advertised. Add USC forward Davon Jefferson, Arizona State guard James Harden and Arizona guard Jerryd Bayless to the list of Pac-10 freshman stars.The teams, in predicted order of finish:1. UCLA Last season: 30-6 overall, 15-3 Pac-10, 1stCoach: Ben Howland, 5th yearNon-conference record: 12-1Best win: Michigan StateWorst loss: TexasProspects: It has become a given that Howland's Bruins will contend for a national title, and this team has that capability. The perimeter quickness of Darren Collison is complemented nicely by Love, an inside offensive threat the Bruins lacked last season. UCLA has been good, not great, so far, splitting its two games against quality opponents.2. Washington State Last season: 25-7, 13-5, 2ndCoach: Tony Bennett, 2nd yearNon-conference record: 12-0Best win: At GonzagaWorst loss: NoneProspects: Early performance showed last season was no fluke. To beat the Cougars, teams have to work extremely hard, and not many can work hard enough. Kyle Weaver is starting to get the recognition he deserves as perhaps the best all-around player in the conference, and Derrick Low is as tough as they come.3. USC Last season: 25-12, 11-7, tie-3rdCoach: Tim Floyd, 3rd yearNon-conference record: 9-3Best win: OklahomaWorst loss: MercerProspects: The Trojans have a chance to win the conference, because Mayo and Jefferson are amazing talents. If you discard the opening loss to Mercer, their only two losses are to No. 3 Kansas and No. 2 Memphis, both close games. It's hard to know how the freshmen will react when Pac-10 foes are preparing specifically for them.4. Arizona Last season: 20-11, 11-7, tie-3rdCoach: Kevin O'Neill, 1st year (interim coach for Lute Olson, who is on personal leave)Non-conference record: 9-3Best win: Texas A&MWorst loss: VirginiaProspects: Wildcats are adjusting well to O'Neill, whose penchant for defense should pay dividends along with a tough non-conference slate. And if Bayless' knee injury keeps him out no more than four games, the Wildcats should be fine. Chase Budinger is a proven commodity, but the key is center Jordan Hill, who might be the most improved player in the conference.5. Stanford Last season: 18-13, 10-8, 6thCoach: Trent Johnson, 4th yearNon-conference record: 11-1Best win: Texas TechWorst loss: SienaProspects: This is the same bunch that was a surprise NCAA team last season, but the Cardinal have done nothing of note this season. Losing to Siena is a no-no, although that was before Brook Lopez returned. Dealing with pressure defenses remains an issue. The Cardinal leaving point guard Mitch Johnson in the starting lineup solves that.6. Oregon Last season: 29-8, 11-7, tie-3rdCoach: Ernie Kent, 11th yearNon-conference record: 9-3Best win: Kansas StateWorst loss: Oakland (Mich.)Prospects: With all their speed and outside shooting ability, the Ducks will be spectacular some games, but without a low-post presence and without Aaron Brooks, they will look bad at times, too. Oregon's work so far is not particularly impressive, and losing to Oakland suggests vulnerability. Preseason No. 12 ranking looks a little high.7. Cal Last season: 16-17, 6-12, 8thCoach: Ben Braun, 12th yearNon-conference record: 9-2Best win: MissouriWorst loss: UtahProspects: A lot depends on the Bears' health, specifically Theo Robertson. It would be asking a lot for him to return to peak form after such a long layoff, but if he does and the Bears get some efficient point-guard play, they could jump several spots in the standings.8. Arizona State Last season: 8-22, 2-16, 10thCoach: Herb Sendek, 2nd yearNon-conference record: 10-2Best win: LSUWorst loss: IllinoisProspects: Harden is doing a little bit of everything, and his presence alone makes the Sun Devils more competitive than they were last season. ASU is carrying last season's strong finish into this season, and this team could significantly exceed expectations, maybe even landing an NCAA berth.9. Washington Last season: 19-13, 8-10, 7thCoach: Lorenzo Romar, 6th yearNon-conference record: 9-4Best win: UtahWorst loss: Oklahoma StateProspects: The one-point loss to Pittsburgh was impressive, and winning at LSU showed something, too. Jon Brockman might be the Pac-10's best player, and Ryan Appleby and Justin Dentmon are experienced guards. But the Huskies still must prove they can play consistently well on the road.10. Oregon State Last season: 11-21, 3-15, 9thCoach: Jay John, 6th yearNon-conference record: 6-6Best win: Northern ColoradoWorst loss: Alaska-FairbanksProspects: C.J. Giles should help once he gets in the swing of things, but losses to Tennessee Tech and Alaska-Fairbanks are impossible to ignore. If this keeps up, John's job might be in jeopardy.(E-mail Jake Curtis at jcurtis@sfchronicle.com.)(Distributed by Scripps Howard News Service, www.scrippsnews.com.)
Believe the hype: Pac-10 is loaded
Submitted by administrator on Wed, 01/02/2008 - 13:41
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