John Ensign's wild Senate ride is likely to continue

WASHINGTON -- It should have been a good news cycle for the National Republican Senatorial Committee and its chairman, Nevada's Sen. John Ensign.

The committee struggled all year to lay the groundwork for electing Republicans to the Senate in 2008. Fundraising was way down. Veteran senators who would be shoo-ins for reelection shocked Washington by announcing their retirements. Recruitment of challengers to Democratic senators was going slowly.

But on a Monday in the dog days of August, Louisiana state Treasurer John Kennedy announced he was switching political parties, from Democrat to Republican -- becoming a potentially strong challenger to Louisiana's Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu, the Democrats' most vulnerable senator heading into 2008.

Ensign and his staff could have seized the spotlight and enjoyed the good news.

But that same day the story broke about Idaho Republican Sen. Larry Craig's arrest in an airport restroom for allegedly soliciting sex from an undercover officer in the next stall. Craig's "wide stance" defense would dominate the headlines for weeks to come.

Whatever bounce Ensign could have received from Louisiana became overshadowed by the stain of another Republican scandal in a year when the party was trying to overcome the reputation for corruption that partly fueled voters' desire for a change in 2006.

Against that backdrop, Ensign took the two-year job in late 2006 as chairman of the election committee. His profile has been on the rise all year in Washington, even if the news for Republicans has not.

Republicans are struggling to redefine their identity and regain their footing after losing control of Congress for the first time in 12 years. With the Senate's balance of power hanging by a one-seat majority, Ensign's job next fall is to prevent that gap from widening and -- in a perfect world -- have Republicans regain the majority.

No one expects Ensign to succeed at the latter. Next fall 23 Republican Senate seats must be defended, compared with just 12 for the Democrats. Voters tell pollsters they prefer Democrats to Republicans heading into 2008.

But Ensign will be judged on his performance -- how many seats he loses and whether he mounted a smart and aggressive enough campaign for his caucus. Doing well in this job could push him up the ranks of Republican Party leadership -- past chairmen have included Sen. Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, now the party's leader in the Senate.

Conversely, a bad performance could derail his advancement, leaving him pegged as the guy who let the Republican margin slide further, much the way Sen. Elizabeth Dole of North Carolina was criticized after she held the job during the previous election cycle, when Republicans lost six seats and the majority.

By many measures, the committee under Ensign's leadership is off to a rocky start. His quest to raise $120 million for the 2008 election, to match what the Democrats amassed last year, has fallen short. Ensign has raised $26 million and spent all but $9 million.

Ensign has been unable to prevent retirements as longtime Republican senators who were likely to have easily defended their seats bow out of Washington. Republicans Chuck Hagel of Nebraska, John Warner of Virginia and Trent Lott of Mississippi are among those whose retirements took the Hill by surprise.

Jennifer Duffy, who analyzes Senate races for The Cook Political Report, says she has been grading Ensign on a curve this year because of the difficult environment Republicans in the Senate face.

So long as he loses no more than three Republican seats next fall, she said, the outcome will be considered "something of a victory."

Ensign has always had a noticeable presence in Washington. Elected with the 1994 Republican revolution, he swept into office on a wave of conservative ideology that dominated the election cycle then much as the Democrats' call for change did in 2006.

His good looks and stylishly rich dress set him apart in a town that lacks both. He made a top-50 "most beautiful" people in Washington list in 2006. (Ensign did not make himself available for an interview for this story.)

During his time in the Senate he has distinguished himself with aggressive legislation that represents the party's conservative flank on national issues, from limiting benefits for illegal immigrants to ensuring the Bush tax cuts for corporate America are preserved.

"We have had an opportunity to shape legislation over the past year," he said in a statement. "When it came to several important issues, we were able to improve legislation."

This year, his leadership position pushed him further onto the national stage. During the Craig scandal, in particular, he made a name for himself as the party's enforcer. When Craig decided to finish out his term rather than quickly resign as first promised, Ensign expressed the party's displeasure.

Fellow Republican Sen. Norm Coleman of Minnesota, who is among those fighting to hold on to his seat in 2008 in a likely challenge from comedian Al Franken, said Ensign this year has "earned a lot of respect."

"He's been aggressive, outgoing -- he's a good face for the NRSC," Coleman said.

Lisa Mascaro can be reached at lisa.mascara(at)lasvegassun.com.

(Distributed by Scripps Howard News Service, www.scrippsnews.com.)